Valdosta's bet thread... [Archive] - FIGHTBEAT.COM BOXING FORUMS

valdosta

02-27-2008, 03:18 AM

since I am bored I will mention a couple of upcoming bets. Both fights are pretty close to 50/50 IMO so the odds are good. First I took JMM over Pacquiao at +165. I will add more to it if I can get better odds when it gets closer. hell I will probably add more to it anyways. I think JMM can win enough rounds to win a dec. Pacquiao hasn't looked as hungry IMO lately. This fight is a bigger deal for JMM than Pacquiao, plus he is more skilled (although less talented). My other bet is Hopkins over Calzaghe. I actually messed up and jumped the gun. I took Hopkins at +235 which is better than current numbers but unbelievably when the fight opened the odds went up to +275 or so before falling back down. Still can't believe people laid those odds on Calzaghe. I'll probably bet something else on Wednesday or Thursday when the lines for this week come out. if anyone else bets they can post what they bet to:cool:

LATIN KING

02-27-2008, 03:22 AM

I'm surprised on your bet for JMM/Pacquiao. I thought you were expecting Pacquiao KO 1 :lol:

Tyler Durden

02-27-2008, 03:28 AM

That's a good bet.

valdosta

02-27-2008, 03:29 AM

Shouldn't be a surprise I bet against him all the time because of inflated lines. My record on Pacquiao fights aren't all that great let me look at his record and see....

Had the Pac-Lucero under that was a good bet (don't remember the amount to be honest)

Had Pac over MAB by KO in the first fight that was a great bet (300 to win 3600)

bet JMM against Pac the first time, lucky to get away with a draw (a 4k bet)

Bet Morales over Pacquiao in the first fight (won 4k)

Bet Morales over Pacquiao in the rematch (lost 10k)

Bet Morales in the 3rd fight (lost 3500)

Bet on Solis over Pacquiao (lost 500), that was just because of odds.

mexican wedding shirt

02-27-2008, 06:14 AM

I'm a real pacman fan, and I know you are too Val, but I've been saying for a while he is soon to be done as a top fighter.

You're right, he has no hunger left. This is a more skilled and rounded, but overall less effective Pacquiao than the one that demolished Ledwaba and Barrera.

He was at his best when he was a hungry, snarling whirlwind like beast.

I don't think he really wants to fight anymore.

I still think he'll win a close decision over Marquez though, but Marquez is not a bad bet, he has a good chance to win.

His_Royness

02-27-2008, 06:53 AM

I won't play around with you clowns - i will wait til Attraction posts his tips... :laughing:

Punk

02-27-2008, 08:32 AM

Good bets, both very live dogs.

meetthefeebles

02-27-2008, 10:30 AM

Good thread Val :clap:

Another potentially tasty bet I've mentioned elsewhere is that Enzo Macarinelli is 6/4 in a lot of places to beat David Haye next week.

Although I expect Haye to win, it's a real 'he who lands first, wins', 50/50 coin-flip sort of match-up, so those 6/4 (you get 6 back for a stake of 4, plus your original stake- sorry, I don't do US) odds on Mac are a pretty good bet and are tempting me more and more each passing day...

Attraction

02-27-2008, 10:37 AM

I will be lumping on Marquez myself.

meetthefeebles

02-27-2008, 10:40 AM

I will be lumping on Marquez myself.

I won't be 'lumping' on, but I will almost certainly have a small wager. I LOVE Manny ac, but he is starting to show signs of decline in that he doesn't seem to have that burning hunger that made him so fearsome anymore.

Those odds are good odds in the circumstances...

valdosta

02-28-2008, 05:09 PM

The odds for this week suck, nothing to appealing. I like haye over mac BTW. 2 chinny guys but Haye is much more talented.

valdosta

02-28-2008, 05:11 PM

His_Royness

02-28-2008, 05:50 PM

Actually the only tempting odds on boxing IMO are the Bute-Joppy over. It's 8.5 rounds at -110.

you think it's better than 9.5 rounds @ +170 ?

valdosta

02-28-2008, 05:56 PM

you think it's better than 9.5 rounds @ +170 ?

I think it's a good bet. 1 more round but the extra + makes it more than worth it. That's a pretty big difference in price for 1 round.

His_Royness

02-28-2008, 06:10 PM

I think it's a good bet. 1 more round but the extra + makes it more than worth it. That's a pretty big difference in price for 1 round.

yep think so too - just wanted to hear your take on it ;)

I even found +170 for over 9.0 ... not for american bettors though...

What about points win BUTE for +275?

valdosta

02-28-2008, 06:15 PM

yep think so too - just wanted to hear your take on it ;)

I even found +170 for over 9.0 ... not for american bettors though...

What about points win BUTE for +275?

If 1 round is worth about 80 cents from 8.5 to 9.5 from -105 0r -110 to +170 I think that's a better deal than Bute by dec at +275.

meetthefeebles

02-28-2008, 08:44 PM

The odds for this week suck, nothing to appealing. I like haye over mac BTW. 2 chinny guys but Haye is much more talented.

Oh, I agree, but the odds for Mac, at 6/4, are good for what is a pretty close 50/50 fight (who lands first probably wins)...

His_Royness

02-29-2008, 11:42 AM

Oh, I agree, but the odds for Mac, at 6/4, are good for what is a pretty close 50/50 fight (who lands first probably wins)...

valdosta thinks since Haye is much more talented, it's not a 50:50 thing of who lands first...

and btw haye overcame a KD and heavy pressure against Mormeck why shouldn't he survive the first punches Mac has to offer... :dunno:

Andrew

02-29-2008, 12:34 PM

If anyone wants a little action in the next few hours. I think Melbourne Storm are huge value against Leeds Rhinos in the World Club Challange. This is Football > Rugby League. Melbourne to win at +233 is very good value.

valdosta

02-29-2008, 07:00 PM

ElTerriblee

02-29-2008, 07:03 PM

I slept all day, how did this turn out?

Not good. Andrew owes me a trip to Australia and a beer. :laughing:

Tam Tam

02-29-2008, 07:47 PM

He slept through it too :lol:

meetthefeebles

02-29-2008, 09:27 PM

meetthefeebles

02-29-2008, 09:29 PM

valdosta thinks since Haye is much more talented, it's not a 50:50 thing of who lands first...

and btw haye overcame a KD and heavy pressure against Mormeck why shouldn't he survive the first punches Mac has to offer... :dunno:

Oh, believe me, I have money and sig bet's in favour of David. and I'll take whatever else people want to offer if it's reasonable...

But I still think the price is good for Enzo. I don't automatically back who SHOULD win- I always look for value bets. And I offered that one as an example to the forum.

What's the beef? :dunno:

valdosta

03-01-2008, 01:23 AM

Actually the only tempting odds on boxing IMO are the Bute-Joppy over. It's 8.5 rounds at -110. Joppy is a pretty good survivor and wasn't afraid to run like hell from Taylor. Bute wins for sure but it should go later IMO.

I won a small bet there. Did it go over 9.5 or under? none of my books had that option thankfully.

His_Royness

03-01-2008, 01:32 AM

I won a small bet there. Did it go over 9.5 or under? none of my books had that option thankfully.

wasn't worth the extra 80 cents THIS time. I didn't bet anything... stupid should have taken the over 9.0 at +170 at bwin... hesitated too long on this one.

put something on over for the telefutura main event... :bears:

His_Royness

03-01-2008, 01:36 AM

Oh, believe me, I have money and sig bet's in favour of David. and I'll take whatever else people want to offer if it's reasonable...

But I still think the price is good for Enzo. I don't automatically back who SHOULD win- I always look for value bets. And I offered that one as an example to the forum.

What's the beef? :dunno:

Did that come across like beef to you??? I'm sorry then. Just wanted to say some guys doesn't necessarily weigh this fight as a 50:50 affair but that opinion isn't any better than yours.

Oh and i didn't mean to call your gf a bitch that other day... well not in a bad way at least. can be a great bitch can she not? :cheer: :bears: :wink:

Attraction

03-01-2008, 08:02 PM

Valdosta have you had a bet on the vasquez marquez fight? I have taken Vasquez at 1.7. I think he is much much better than Marquez

royyjonesjrp4pno1

03-01-2008, 08:09 PM

Valdosta have you had a bet on the vasquez marquez fight? I have taken Vasquez at 1.7. I think he is much much better than Marquez
Better maybee but not much much better. He beat Israels ass the first time and was competitive in the 2nd fight.

Attraction

03-01-2008, 08:12 PM

Better maybee but not much much better. He beat Israels ass the first time and was competitive in the 2nd fight.

in my opinion hw was not that competitive in the second fight. he knew vasquez had his number

valdosta

03-01-2008, 08:13 PM

Valdosta have you had a bet on the vasquez marquez fight? I have taken Vasquez at 1.7. I think he is much much better than Marquez

Nope, I hate all the scar tissue Vasquez has on his face. I bet a good bit on what I bet but I honestly don't make a lot of bets. Maybe 1-3 a weekend. This weekend I had the Bute over, I might put half of that $$$ on Hederson against Silva.

valdosta

03-01-2008, 08:14 PM

Better maybee but not much much better. He beat Israels ass the first time and was competitive in the 2nd fight.

Marquez won the first fight but some people are not portraying that fight correctly. Marquez was only ahead by a couple points and Vasquez actually had a good round before he had to quit. It was not some 1 sided beatdown.

royyjonesjrp4pno1

03-01-2008, 08:15 PM

Marquez won the first fight but some people are not portraying that fight correctly. Marquez was only ahead by a couple points and Vasquez actually had a good round before he had to quit. It was not some 1 sided beatdown.Yeah you are right i was reaching. He was clearly winning the fight but Israel had his moments for sure.

Attraction

03-01-2008, 08:21 PM

Nope, I hate all the scar tissue Vasquez has on his face. I bet a good bit on what I bet but I honestly don't make a lot of bets. Maybe 1-3 a weekend. This weekend I had the Bute over, I might put half of that $$$ on Hederson against Silva.

is this how you make a living or just something on the sidelines?

also, this may seem like a weird question and obviously you'll be able to answer better as the fight approaches more but you said you are taking b-hop over calzaghe. I think there is a chance b-hop can take this, although i make calzaghe a light favourite at the moment. my question is, are you backing b-hop because you really think he'll win or because you think he is a value bet? I have it 60:40 in favour of calzaghe.

valdosta

03-01-2008, 08:28 PM

is this how you make a living or just something on the sidelines?

also, this may seem like a weird question and obviously you'll be able to answer better as the fight approaches more but you said you are taking b-hop over calzaghe. I think there is a chance b-hop can take this, although i make calzaghe a light favourite at the moment. my question is, are you backing b-hop because you really think he'll win or because you think he is a value bet? I have it 60:40 in favour of calzaghe.

I have a real job. Last year I made more gambling though, this year has started that way as well. I bet a little differently than most. I don't believe in betting a lot of stuff, I think you find something you have an advantage on and like and load up.

I bet on Hopkins for both reasons. It's better odds than I expected and he can win the fight IMO. Calzaghe is moving up in weight,fighting in the US in a big fight for the first time and never fought someone who cheats like Hopkins. JMM will be a bigger bet for me though than Hopkins.

meetthefeebles

03-01-2008, 08:53 PM

Did that come across like beef to you??? I'm sorry then. Just wanted to say some guys doesn't necessarily weigh this fight as a 50:50 affair but that opinion isn't any better than yours.

Oh and i didn't mean to call your gf a bitch that other day... well not in a bad way at least. can be a great bitch can she not? :cheer: :bears: :wink:

I was replying to the thread, which was a betting thread. I offered what I thought was good value. No more than that.

As for the latter part of your post, well, I'll take it at face value. I'll even go as far to apologise if I overreacted last time out. I just don't refer to my gf as a 'bitch'. Period. So long as the matter is closed and your comments are not meant as sarcasm...

Deal?

MTF

valdosta

03-02-2008, 07:14 PM

Nope, I hate all the scar tissue Vasquez has on his face. I bet a good bit on what I bet but I honestly don't make a lot of bets. Maybe 1-3 a weekend. This weekend I had the Bute over, I might put half of that $$$ on Hederson against Silva.

I did put half of what I made on Bute on Henderson. Bad bet :flip: Fucking idiot, I liked Leben all week but never pulled the trigger.

His_Royness

03-02-2008, 09:11 PM

I was replying to the thread, which was a betting thread. I offered what I thought was good value. No more than that.

As for the latter part of your post, well, I'll take it at face value. I'll even go as far to apologise if I overreacted last time out. I just don't refer to my gf as a 'bitch'. Period. So long as the matter is closed and your comments are not meant as sarcasm...

Deal?

MTF

DEAL! :cheer:

@ Val... i had Leben just because everyone picked him but watching that fight i thought STUPID.... glad he caught him because that looked like Leben would gass soon. He looked also much sloppier than Sakara.

and DAMN Silva beat that ass in the second round... :eek:

valdosta

03-02-2008, 09:18 PM

DEAL! :cheer:

@ Val... i had Leben just because everyone picked him but watching that fight i thought STUPID.... glad he caught him because that looked like Leben would gass soon. He looked also much sloppier than Sakara.

and DAMN Silva beat that ass in the second round... :eek:

I liked leben because of the difference in chins. Leben has always shown an excellent chin except for against Silva. That is understandable considering what a badass Silva is. Sakara on the other hand has some nice striking but his chin isn't to good obviously. Made a big mistake on that fight. Leben may have gassed somewhat but he is still capable of fighting 3 rounds. As for Silva-Henderson I thought henderson would be able to do what he did in round 1 for basically the whole fight. :shit:

BTW- I saw your IM about the Okami fight. Our disagreement was never about who would win but whether or not -160 was a good number.

His_Royness

03-03-2008, 10:41 AM

BTW- I saw your IM about the Okami fight. Our disagreement was never about who would win but whether or not -160 was a good number.

i know it wasn't meant to continue the argument... :lol: btw i also had Herring - but that bet also looked in big trouble the whole fight. I thought they would give it to Kongo since that seems to be the more marketable fighter...

Andrew

03-03-2008, 01:35 PM

Not good. Andrew owes me a trip to Australia and a beer. :laughing:

lol apologies Dariusz. The weather really killed the game, but thats no excuse. The rugby league season is just about to start down here, I promise Ill make the money you lost back plus more and then you can shout me a trip to Germany and a beer :lol:

valdosta

03-12-2008, 10:08 PM

Still like JMM, might add something else not sure yet.....

Attraction

03-13-2008, 10:07 AM

Still like JMM, might add something else not sure yet.....

I was going to bumb this thread to ask you if you are still strong on it. I'm going to wait til after the weigh in to get on JMM. Pacman always looks ripped at his weigh ins and more people will back him after seeing him so the price will get better