There's no fights of note today - so from now until next weekend it's only fitting to focus all our boxing energy on Canelo-Cotto. Let's actually see some break downs of the fight, what each guy needs to do to win, how you think the fight will go, ect... I'll give my breakdown later.
Cotto will win the early rounds by confusing canelo with some boxing and movement and aggressive comvbinations. Canelo will take a few rounds to work him out. Canelo though is bigger, stronger and tougher, faster and probably hits harder. He'll start to wear Cotto down with his blistering spurts of aggression. By the 7th round Cotto will be busted up and ready to go. What Cotto needs to do to win: Keep boxing and moving and be a poor man's Floyd Mayweather. What Canelo needs to do to win: Force a fire fight.
I don't think Canelo can get away with letting Cotto off to a good start. If you look back at Cotto's losses, you gotta put hurt on him EARLY. Marg in their first fight was hurting him as early as the 2nd round, Pac lit him up starting in the 3rd... Floyd didn't put that much early hurt on him but it's different for Floyd considering how good a technician he is. For Canelo, he has to impose his strength and put hurt on Cotto early. If it's round 5-6, and Canelo is still fighting a tactical fight, and letting Cotto establish a real rhythm, then Cotto has an excellent chance at the upset. At the end of the day, despite his age and his mileage, Cotto's just a naturally more skilled/more fluid BOXER than Canelo. Nelo needs to make it a fire fight within the first 4 rounds.
I think early on Canelo will be his typical patient self and will look to apply subtle pressure. His gas tank won't let him do a poor man's version of Margarito, so he will take his rests and that will allow Cotto to pile on points. By the mid to late rounds, Cotto will tire and Canelo will turn the momentum in his favor. He'll hurt Cotto badly at some point and this will be his chance at the stoppage. I suspect Cotto will hang on to hear a close controversial win in his favor. Split decision for Cotto. There won't be a rematch.
I dunno what the rematch clause stipulation is in this fight, but I feel like if it's a close Cotto win GB will be HELL BENT on trying to do a rematch. Cotto if he wins might just retire. But, if he wins and it's a great fight, a rematch will make him even more $$$$ so who knows. Only thing I know for sure is that Canelo and Cotto would rather fight eachother 10 times than fight Golov once.
Cotto basically CONFIRMED he didn't want it with Triple G in his last post fight interview with Max. His reaction was PRICELESS! :drl:
Cotto needs to box and stay off the ropes. Use angles, movement and the left hook to the body. Canelo tends to fight in spurts so Miguel needs to be more active and get work done when Alvarez takes breaks. It's highly unlikely Cotto gets a knockout so everything has to be about winning rounds and ignoring the crowd's craving bloodlust. Canelo has to force exchanges and not hope Cotto will be drawn into a war because pre-fight hype says that's what it should be. He's younger, stronger and needs to make that count. If Cotto is not within range do something more than trying to close the distance. If he uses a lot of thudding jabs he can upset Cotto's rhythm and maybe even bust open a cut.
I can see Cotto getting off first consistently, using angles to defuse exchanges and basically beating him up, maybe even stopping him. Alvarez' power might change the whole thing tho.
