I don't think Duran has the pure power to crack a prime undamaged Vargas chin at 154 and Vargas is just too big and good. Not actually better than Duran but sound and solid enough to impose his size. Vargas wasn't fast but he was efficient and had intensity. I think he'd win a clear UD in an entertaining competitive scrap.
Duran wouldn't have to crack his chin. He definitely could and would hurt Vargas though. Vargas was never iron chinned. I say Duran exposes Nando's shitty D.