The good betting odds thread

Ok still waiting for the lazy fucks at sports.com for the week.


Some early lines to consider:


Sportingbet has Cleverly at around -160 - his workrate will be too much for Brähmer who i think is nearing shot.


thegreek has the under for Cotto-Mayorga at evens now which is a surebet with bwin and sportingbet with a chance to win both bets with a window of one or half a round respectively.

I'm also thinking maybe Johnny Perez against Vic Darcinian - he'll have the size and Vic is 35 now and looked in trouble often against Mares. Perez by KO is +350 even that might be worth a shot.

What do you guys think about Mares Agbeko. Agbeko is the slight dog here...




Alright since we switch a little bit with the odds formats, here is a conversion table for ya:

Fracl Dec American
1/10 1,1 -1000
1/9 1,11 -900
1/8 1,12 -800
1/7 1,14 -700
1/6 1,16 -600
1/5 1,20 -500
2/9 1,22 -450
1/4 1,25 -400
2/7 1,28 -350
3/10 1,30 -333,30
1/3 1,33 -300
7/20 1,35 -285,70
4/11 1,36 -275
2/5 1,40 -250
4/9 1,44 -225
9/20 1,45 -222,20
40/85 1,47 -212,50
1/2 1,50 -200
8/15 1,53 -187,50
4/7 1,57 -175
3/5 1,60 -166,70
8/13 1,62 -162,50
5/8 1,63 -160
4/6 1,66 -150
7/10 1,70 -142,90
8/11 1,72 -137,50
4/5 1,80 -125
5/6 1,83 -120
9/10 1,90 -111,10
10/11 1,91 -110
20/21 1,95 -105
1/1 2,00 -100
21/20 2,05 +105
11/10 2,10 +110
6/5 2,20 +120
5/4 2,25 +125
13/10 2,30 +130
11/8 2,38 +137,50
7/5 2,40 +140
6/4 2,50 +150
8/5 2,60 +160
13/8 2,63 +162,50
17/10 2,70 +170
7/4 2,75 +175
9/5 2,80 +180
15/8 2,88 +187,50
19/10 2,90 +190
2/1 3,00 +200
21/10 3,10 +210
85/40 3,13 +212,50
11/5 3,20 +220
9/4 3,25 +225
23/10 3,30 +230
95/40 3,38 +237,50
12/5 3,40 +240
5/2 3,50 +250
13/5 3,60 +260
11/4 3,75 +275
14/5 3,80 +280
3/1 4,00 +300
16/5 4,20 +320
10/3 4,33 +333,30
7/2 4,50 +350
18/5 4,60 +360
4/1 5,00 +400
9/2 5,50 +450
5/1 6,00 +500
11/2 6,50 +550
6/1 7,00 +600
13/2 7,50 +650
7/1 8,00 +700
15/2 8,50 +750
8/1 9,00 +800
17/2 9,50 +850
9/1 10,00 +900
10/1 11,00 +1000

 

For fucks sake... Betfred came our with a -150 on Cleverly today and the KO odds at sporting are outrageous...



Thx for the participation everyone...



I might go to boxrec if this goes on... ::

 

I don't have daily thoughts on the subject, tbh, but I'll bump this as soon as I do:scared2:

 

Pac -700
Mosley +500

Wow.

 

Cleverly by stoppage at 3-1 sounds about right to me.

1/5 on Alvarez to beat Hatton looks good to me, that fights an absolute cert. I might even straddle to keep half my money on Hatton by freak stoppage at 12/1. Money in the bank.

I suspect things can be done with O'Donnel-Watson next week too, the bookies are fairly slit on it, might be worth you having a look at.

The Mike Jones-Jesus Karas rematch can def be worked with, you can cover both guys at profit right now between bet 365 & betfred with room for a draw straddle. That's another one where if you've got a few hundred kicking about you can have a potentially tasty free bet.

 

I've my money on Pac to win straddled with a Mosley KO. I got that at crazy odds.

 

Ain't doing those surebets anymore unless you get like 10% at least. You will see that if you win too much you get limited and those surebets give you high traffic on two books and one of the odds is the bad one and this book will limit you quicker.

So idea is to find the good odds on the surebet and play only those. That way u will get limited at the bookie that fucked up but u don't waste money on the other one. Makes you more in the longrun - at least from my experience.

 

Ok this is a good post to get some basic rules. Don't have people guessing!

Post the bookie and the odds you think is goodand if you wanna be nerdy your reasoning. Both sides of one bet is kinda retarded. Nobody knows what you mean with WOW...

 

Sorry mate, Im not following you. Howd you mean?

 

let's say u have an even fight which means both fighter's have 50% chance of winning, if there was a chance to evaluate this correctly...

A bookie will give you 1,9 and 1,9 on this. If one fucks up you have maybe 1,9 and 2,3. You could play a surebet but it would of course be better if you knew that only the 2,3 is the one to play. So if you can find the "Value" odds on these plays at least 50% of the time you'll be better off in the longrun.


If you are getting good at this the bad bookies will limit you. Because they are the ones who fuck up odds constantly and therefore you can fuck them. But you don't wanna waste your money on the other side and sure your winnings away at some smart bookie who got the odds right...

 

What do you mean bookies will limit you? I've never heard of this before.

 

Really??? Sportingbet, bet365, paddypower (very extreme), Stanjames, bwin and lots of others...

will limit the stakes or possible winnings if you become too successful - you can google it.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/sportsbooks-industry/132497-when-does-bet365-limits.html

This is basically the only problem professional gamblers have at this point. You need fresh accounts...

 

That doesn't sound like it should be legal. But yeah I'll cross that brige when I come to it, I have plenty family/friends I could have put bets on for me.

 

It'S about as legal as bouncers in night clubs... ::


hope you get to use them, soon, mate :)

 

I think Vic beats Perez. Perez looked like dogshit against Agbeko IMO. I also took Cleverly over Brahmer.

 

Don't you gamble pretty heavily val? Make money with it?

 

I have done pretty well throughout the years. Anyone have any opinions on Montiel-Donaire?

 

I don't think it'll go the distance. Beyond that I marginally favour Donaire, but not nearly as much as the bookies do.

 

I wanted to say Donaire easily, but i didn't see Montiels last fights. He seems resurrected. But even in his prime he was outboxed by Jhonny Gonzales and i'm thinking Donaire can do that, too and a little bit more even.


Where did you play Cleverlay, Val and what odds did u get?


Perez-Vic is kinda tricky... Vic looked like Dogshit in instances in the Mares fight but still made it very close and he's old and tiny. If you put all cross-comparisons together Agbeko over Mares at +110 might be the better play.

 

4/1 on a Montiel stoppage are GREAT odds and make a straddle play really workable, at least. I think the one outcome you could (fairly) confidently rule out is Montiel by decision.

Donaire to win 5/11 bwin.

straddled with Montiel by stoppage 4/1 sporting bet

That'd be my play on that one, personally.

 

That's only like 1/8 - You get more with Montiel not by 12 round decisision at 5dimes... plus in case of a draw or TD for Montiel this also wins, whereas your bets would be lost.


Also sports.com has Donaire at 1/2 (draw money back). Hope you didn't play yet. :Thumbs:

 

How'd you mean 'montiel not by 12 round decision', mate?

 

sports.com is double fucking dutch to me. There's no list of sports and no search function. Donaire might be 1/2 there but I'll be damned if im spending 2 hours finding it.

 

well you said the only thing u can rule out is Montiel by decision, that's why u made this constructed bet that pays 1/8.

%dimes offers prop bets "Montiel by 12 round Decision" and also the natural opposite "Not Montiel by 12 round decision" where u win with any outcome beside Montiel by 12 round decision.

it pays around 1/7 and includes draw and Montiel tecnical decision which makes the difference to your construct.

 

http://www.sports.com/livesports/indexmember.php?sportsname=boxing


click on fight odds...

 

Do you mean bet exchange sites? Google isn't giving me anything for %dimes.

 

sorry www.5dimes.com

 

Right again, this all looks far too complicated. This is just a bit of fun for me, I'm perfectly happy with 1/8 vs 1/7 if it means going through all this jazz ::

$500 minimum deposit? Sack that.

 

Same opinion here. I don't think it will go 12 and think Montiel is the underdog by a bit to much.

 

Donaire is kind of a 1 trick pony so far in his career. Outside of beating Vic his resume is pretty shitty and it makes me wonder how he will do with Montiel. Montiel has won some and lost some but been in this position more.

I took Cleverly at -135 at 5dimes but the limits were pathetic. Regardless, I took it anyways because I knew it wouldn't last.

Those really are tough fights IMO. Perez is bigger than Vic slower. Perez has the better chin, while Vic has the better punch. Mares-Agbeko is just a toss up IMO.