Fightbeat Predictions Championship 2011.

Where exactly have I gotten carried away? :dunno:

 

No favourites yet dude, though Reed and MWS have certainly been impressive. Isn't this running for the whole year?

 

Scoring rules have been slightly amended to account for TDs and injury related retirements. No past scoring will be changed, but give them a wee look so you don't think I've changed them after-fact if these things happen again.

 

the only one with which I disagree is in the Split Decision column. I don't think a TD should rate so low in that category, when it's second highest in UD section. For a SD prediction, a technical split decision should carry more weight than a unanimous decision.

My two cents.

 

Pawel fucking Wolak.

You spend years waiting for a Pole to win the big one, and when he does it fucks with your spread.

 

Good shout. Amended.

 

Changed my A) pick in Vitali-Solis. At the time, "close decisions" were accepted as picks, forgot to update once the rules changed.

 

Interesting. I won't be shocked if this fight is harder than expected, but I can't put my faith in Solis until I see how he shows up at the weigh in. He has allot of distance to cover between the end of Vitali's jab and his chin and he has to cover it quicker than I think he can at 260lb.

Strategically this is a replica of Abraham-Froch, IMO. If Vitali can establish the centre ground and land enough to stop Solis pushing him back, crowding him and wearing him down this is a mismatch. I mean a 12-0 mismatch, with Solis hardly throwing shit and just getting beat up from 3 feet away. Late stoppage probable. But the possibility exists. Arreola had Vitali backtracking, and I think if Solis can do similar & get the ground shifting this becomes a more interesting fight than 95% of people expect, since Solis is a far cuter operator.

At the bookies Im covering a Solis KO win, but I don't have enough faith in him to pick him here. Can't wait to watch this.

 

I really, really want to pick Solis, but impossible to handicap him until some sort of proof surfaces that he's actually in shape for this one (and not round-shaped). In shape and motivated, I give him a good chance of at least frustrating Vitali, if not pulling off the upset outright.

 

Wow you guys obviously see something in Solis that I don't. I think he'll get Arreola'd.

 

Arreola did have Vitali back-tracking but it was a sort of a pyhrric assault by Chris.

Vitali is definitely slowing down. I pondered it from the time of the Johnson fight but other people felt that was as much a case as Johnson being cagey and not wanting to fight.

 

This is honestly the only reason I give Solis a chance to win. Even two years ago, I'd pick Vitali without hesitation. But age eventually has to creep in, even if he preserved himself for four years.

It still depends on which Solis shows up - but even at that will still have to deliver the best performance of his pro career in order to win.

MWS - I don't blame you for seeing it that way. There is a difference, though. When properly motivated, Solis is a well-rounded fighter and probably the fastest hands in the division.

Whereas even at his best, Arreola was "just" a high-volume, heavy-handed puncher. He had no regard for defense and even in his best moments got hit way too often. The Arreola of the Witherspoon fight would've fared better against Vitali, but still would've lost (I say that even though I'd have picked him out of blind loyalty, regardless).

To me, that's the difference. Arreola at his best probably never beats Vitali, though it's somewhat possible he could've managed on his best day to upset Wlad.

Solis at his best brings something different to the table for Vitali, whereas I'd probably never pick any version of him against Wlad.

 

Thats overwhelmingly the most likely outcome. But Solis is the most adept opponent Vitali's faced since Lewis....or at least he will be if he comes in at a decent weight. And he's a come forward guy with good timing and a dependable defense. His amateur career happened 60lb ago, unfortunately, but it speaks to a high talent level. It's one Im interested to see, even though Im 85% sure it'll end up looking like every other Vitali fight.

 

How?

Against every fighter 6´3 and above he looks like complete ass.

1. Ray Austin 6´6

Solis DQ 10 (close on the cards, too close imho but still)

2. Kevin Burnett 6´6

Solis KO8 (next fight that guy lost to journeyman with a 5-11 record, therafter he was being blown out by Michael Grant in two minutes)

3. Harry Duiven Jr. 6´3

Solis UD (Duiven Jr. has been KO´d four times since and is most famous for knocking out his own father in a sanctioned pro bout)

4. Cisse Salif 6´4

Solis UD, (well Salif is tough, so cut him some slack here)

5. Julius Long 7´1

Solis UD ( been stopped inside three rounds by Tye Fields, Fraudley, Ustinov aka the shit version of Valuev, and Peter)

6. Aldo Colliander 6´5

Solis UD (awful fighter that looks like he doesn´t get enough to eat in Sweden)

I don´t see what Solis could possibly do to Vitali.

 

This is the only chance Solis has.

If we two agree on something, it can´t be right. ::

..but maybe some mod should move that into a fresh Vitali/Solis thread.

 

Boxing monthly is giving Solis a good shout out too.

 

If 6'3 is your barometer then at least list everyone at that height or taller

Monte Barrett (6'3") KO2
Dominique Alexander (6'4") KO1
Marcus McGee (listed 6'3", though fairly certain he's taller) KO2
Oleg Masykin (6'5") KO1
Andreas Sidon (6'5") KO1

And a grand total of none of these fights have anything to do with Vitali, more so than they speak volumes of Solis' inconsistency and shoddy training habits.

 

So you count on Solis suddenly showing up at an in shape 225-230 pounds, when he has gained between 15 and 25 pounds over the last two years. He was already 246 pounds then. He struggles to soldily hit people that get destroyed by Fraudley Harrison, Timo Hoffmann and Tye Fields. How is he supposed to hit and beat Vitali, who has a very good defence and a good chin.

How do you envision he beats Vitali? Vitali throws 100 punches a round. If Solis throws 100 punches in a round ONCE, he´s dead. You basically count on a fat short guy that cannot land enough on tall, but weak-chinned journeyman to land a hail mary left bomb, because he has an Olympic gold medal. I guess it could happen. Sam Peter and Cris Arreola had the same chance.

I know, before every fight people always say to themselves: Damn Audley has a gold medal, he can´t be that shit.

 

They give everybody a good shout against Vitali. You should have seen the write-up they gave Williams back in 2004.

 

Anyway guys, start getting your picks in please! My days of chasing people up by PM are over.

 

March 19
Vitali Klitschko vs. Odlanier Solis (WBC heavyweight championship)
A) Klitschko Post 6th Round KO {9th}
B) Klitschko UD

Lucian Bute vs. Brian Magee (IBF super middleweight championship)
A) Bute Pre 6th Round KO {5th}
B) Bute Post 6th Round KO {11th}

Steve Molitor vs. Takalani Ndlovu (IBF junior featherweight championship)
A) Molitor UD
B) Ndlovu W12

Willie Casey vs Guilermo Rigondeaux (WBA super bantamweight championship)
A) Willie Casey SD
B) Rigondeaux UD

 

Wow, wow, nah you still have to pick a round, mate. Sorry for the confusion, shoulda explained that better.

I just wanted to add a small scoring advantage to a fight going late if you picked a decision, so I balanced it out with a slight advantage if you pick an exact early round KO vs late, so that there isn't an inherent advantage in picking late round stoppages. Im over thinking this admittedly, but I kinda like the process.

I also had to rewrite the whole thing because the system/ I deleted the old one somehow. Hence the extra change. But basically the process of picking hasn't changed.

 

According to boxrec Molitor is fighting March 26th.


Vitali TKO7
Vitali TKO10

Rigondeaux KO3
Rigondeaux TKO7

Bute TKO6
Bute TKO8

 

Okay I will edit that now.

 

Recognized, dawg

 

I'm not counting on anything from Solis. If I was, then I would be picking him to win. As my predictions indicate, I'm picking Vitali this weekend.

The rest of your post is coconuts and a borderline rant.

 

This could be a great weekend or a shit weekend for me, results wise.

Liverpool tonight, not too pushed about that.
Klitschko Saturday night.
Sunderland on Sunday
Plus whatever happens in the respective United and Arsenal games.

 

::

 

You pick Vitali by close decision. That´s an even bigger insult to Vitali than picking Solis by KO, but maybe we need to establish what close means in the context of a 12 round decision of Vitali Klitschko. He has gone the 12 round distance three times with cards of

120-105
120-107
120-107
120-108
120-108
120-108
120-108
119-109
119-109

So if you say Vitali close decision, do you mean Solis wins two rounds? :dunno:

End of Return of the borderline rant.