I heard the same thing. The weight cut was definitely a factor but if Ward moved up to 175 he'd still beat the shit out of Dawson.
I disagree. I think you'd have to favor Ward to win, but I wouldn't expect an ass whipping if the fight happens at 175. Not only was Dawson weakened, but he was slower too. Plus, you have to factor in whatever ill effects there would be for Ward, moving up. My guess is, he'd be a tad slower and even less of a puncher. I think of Dawson as a rather large light heavyweight. Against Adamek, he seemed the bigger guy. I don't think the effects of his ill-advised move to 168 were trivial. Nor do I think Ward at this point could move seamlessly between 168 and 175. For these reasons, I'd envision a rather different fight had these two met at 175. As an aside, fighting Ward must be a profitable proposition when you consider the concessions Dawson was willing to make, and that Pavlik was willing to fight him, against all odds and so early on in his comeback.