Yeah, that's basically what it comes down to. Stevie lacking the pop to deter Ray. There would be some rounds where Stevie boxes Ray's ears off, but in the long run, Mancini's strength and body punching would wear Stevie down. In a 15 rounder, I could see Ray stopping him. In a 12 rounder, Ray by UD.
Very good matchup. I think in my mind Mancini might need those extra 3 rounds to win it. Over 12 close decision for either.