Pavlik "wins" at 160 imo. I put quotes around wins as obviously, I wouldn't expect him to get the decision. At 168, Canelo wins legitimately.
Probably Alvarez in a competitive fight, though I'd be cheering the hard-drinking rust belt alky on. Alvarez is a lesser fighter than the version of Hopkins that bushwhacked Pavlik but should still have enough blocking, slipping and countering ability in the pocket and at mid range to mostly stay half a step ahead of Kelly, though Pavliks workrate and solid offensive rhythm would keep him in it and maybe have Alvarez puffing by the later rounds.
Pavlik. The height and reach, jab, and power would be telling. Canelo isn’t effective going backwards IMO, despite him seemingly winning rounds he doesn’t appear to on judges cards.
It's true enough that Canelo can't counter on the move or slow calculated retreat like Hopkins could but I'm not confident that it's enough to cost him the fight. Pavlik was straight up and down and all straight lines basic, not with the sort of refined enough attack despite his excellent power to make up for his all round lack of speed and general ability. Alvarez is overrated these days but I think that Kelly sits very low in the historical pecking order of lineal middleweight champions along with the likes of Taylor.
