Boxing Prediction

The subject of this thread is not Pacman vs. Cotto, but how to make a freaking prediction for a boxing fight.

I have been a boxing fan for a long time. I’m the guy that people from work come to before making bets for a fight. Before a fight a try to analyze the styles of both fighters, their last fights (wins and losses), who they have in their corners and whom have they fought. I’m pretty accurate too!

So why, why!!!!!!!!!!! I was so wrong in the Pacquiao vs. Cotto fight? I analyzed this fight for months and couldn’t see Manny winning this fight. I went down to Vegas and bet 4,000 to Cotto (3,200 - Cotto +250, 600 – Cotto by KO 21/5, 200 – Cotto by KO Rd 10 – 40/1).

I remember reading Sean Reed pre-fight analysis a few days before the fight and thinking there’s no way Pacquiao is stopping Cotto.

So my question is… How do you guys make an unbiased educated prediction?

 

Quite simply you underrated Pacquiao.

Manny had already proved twice in a row that weight classes don't apply to him half as much as they do other fighters, or that simply, he is very suited to 140/147.

Cotto is an excellent fighter, Pacquiao is a special fighter, one of the best ever.

It was fairly obvious Pacman was going to win, he's simply the better fighter.

Of course it's boxing, and a fighter as good as Cotto ALWAYS has a realistic chance, but like I said, Pacquiao is a special fighter.

 

I think the most important thing is to visualise how the styles clash.

We can all study records, and see that one guy has power, and the other has a poor chin or whatever. You don't have to be an expert to see what areas of the sport one fighter excels at over an other...defensive ability etc..

But knowing how one deals with the other style can be the hardest thing, especially if there is no precedent thus far in their career.

'Styles make fights' is one of the biggest cliches in the sport, because it is true.

With this fight, when it was made, i had it down as a real 50-50 contest. Speed vs Power, Mobility vs Size etc... But once i started to think how the styles would actually mesh, i was pretty confident about Manny winning this one, and the fight played out how i expected.

Cotto was never gonna be able to handle Manny's superior speed and footwork. His defence and chin aren't good enough for him not to get hurt. And he struggles to stay with a fast pace. Manny exposed all of these weaknesses.

With boxing you can never been certain, and going into this we didn't really know how well Manny could take a welterweight's punches. That's what still made this fight interesting, but i was confident that Manny could weather whatever early storm there was and takeover later on.

 

btw, if i make myself sound like i'm some sort of guru, i'm not...my predictions have been mixed this year.

 

Pacquiao is the fighter I don't get ( only recently, I was slightly above .500 in his lighter weights super fights ), I never thought he'd have sucess at a weight as high as 147 ( well, 145 to be precise ). Didn't think he had a prayer vs ODLH and he whupped him. I had Hatton big vs him and put some good $$ on him, turned out I was damn wrong. It's shocking how he can have so much power vs guy bigger than himself and how good he can take their punches. So, while I favored Cotto, Pacquio showed me wrong to many time to be shocked by the result.

 

I'm with the consensus here, stlyes make fights.

More than anything I look for how a guy has done against similar type opponents in the past and factor in recent motivations/attributes.

Picking Manny has been good to me since the second Morales fight. In general I'm a phenominal fight predicator. It comes from looking at how the styles mesh and finding the key component. Example, Pac Cotto came down to simple question. How bad has Cotto looked lately, and how has he done historically against speedy southpaws. Cotto hadn't been sitting on his punches for awhile, nor had he committed to any kind of sustained attack.

The most wrong I've ever been for a pick (besides Tarver-Hopkins) was Cotto-Margarito. I said there was no way Margarito would walk through COtto's power. And he did, because Cotto doesn't sit on his stuff anymore, I saw it against Margarito. Granted some of that is moot because of Margarito's plaster-wraps.

I had a thread in Bets/Wagers where I would post guarenteed winners as they'd come up, I dont think I missed a fight in 4 months. So you can find solid prognostications around.

 

I originally thought Cotto would take it but I just couldn't get over what a beast Manny has always been. Especially his sparring and the fact that he seems to love the combat. In the end I changed my prediction to him.

Thing is you can never be certain who's going to win a fight. Unless you have a free pass into both training camps. Even then you can never be certain and that is why I never bet on fights.

For instance I was so fucking positive Shane was going to beat Cotto. I went on this board making rant after rant about it and even sig beat someone which I also practically never do. I also bet a guy at work a case of beer. Well turns out I was wrong, I somehow missed the fact that Cotto was more boxer than brawler, but even then I wouldn't have guessed he'd make Shane look like the less experienced guy.

In the end the guy I sig bet with let me off the hook and the guy I owed the case of beer to told me to just buy him a bottle of tea:cheer:.
However there was no let up for all the shit I talked for weeks and I had to eat crow on that one, but just imagine the damage I could have done to myself if I was a gambler.

 

The only fights I have got horribly wrong were Khan-Prescott and Hamed-Barrera. Usually I'm pretty good at picking winners, as adamiw said, it's visualising how you see the styles meshing and whether one fighters weaknesses plays to the others strengths.

 

I've been a hardcore boxing fan for years, and I've also boxed myself (I haven't actually boxed myself, I boxed other people).

I used to OVERanalyze fights I think. Anaylze both fighters carefully, their styles, play out in my mind how the styles would mesh etc.

And while it is of course necessary to think about the bout stylistically, as the old axiom of styles makes fights is often true - what's more true is 9/10 the better fighter wins.

So these days when picking a fight, I don't analyze things in as much detail as before, honestly I just pick the guy I think is the better fighter.

My main line of thinking in the Pacquiao fight was, Pacman is the better fighter, Pacman has already proved what he's capable of at 140/147 (it's not like he beat a welterweight equivalent of duddy, oscar and hatton were both excellent wins, in dominant fashion) - so Pacman wins.

That was about it, Pacman is better than Cotto, so I picked him to win.

I only had one slight worry, that Cotto would hit him harder than anyone has before, and how would he react.

But Oscar and Hatton both hit him flush, with no effect, none at all, so ultimately I didn't think it was much of a concern, and it turned out it wasn't.

 

these days i just go with whos faster....works 95/100. unless the speedster is clearly inferior, like judah

 

:laughing:

 

So modest. Love it. ::

 

This fight to me was easy to pick from the second they announced it.

I was sure that Pacquiao wasn't going to get knocked out early and Cotto has bad stamina so it was really only a matter of time before he tired out and Pacquiao started catching up with him.

Sometimes I'm really nervous before a fight and second guess myself but for some reason I never had any doubts before Pacquiao's last two fights.

 

Anyone who comes on this thread and says they knew for sure that Pacquiao would win, and didn't bet every last dollar they have that he would, is full of shit.

 

really?

 

I was positive that Pac would win, but I don't usually make bets. I might start for fun though.

 

That's how people end up broke. Too many things can happen in a boxing ring (or any sport for that matter) to possibly gamble more than you can afford.

 

Exactly. So don't come on here after the result is in and pretend that you knew who would win. That's all I'm saying.

Obviously, it's easy to say, after the fight, that you knew without a doubt who would win. But it's bull-shit. Nobody knew for sure.

 

Here is the fail proof prediction method, if this criteria is not met you do not place a bet on the fight. It's simple really.

Look up Double L's prediction.
Look up Hex-One's prediction
Look up Max Kellerman's prediction.

If they all match, it is a sure fire loss for the guy they picked. Bet the farm on the other guy.

You're welcome.

::

 

Sounds like an overkill....why go through steps 2 and 3?

 

Here's a fail safe method:

1. Choose who you think will win

2. If you're correct, come on the forum and pretend there was never a doubt in your mind who would win

3. If you're incorrect, go to step 1.

 

What do you think of *Z*'s method, Double?

 

I stated my case before the fight in the prediction thread. To be honest I don't even know how I would go about betting on a fight(I don't know any bookies)though if Pacquiao is the favorite against Mayweather I might have to figure it out.

 

Use an online betting site. I'm sure there's people here who know the best ones to use.

I've used them before on football and got my winnings within days.

 

I bet every last dollar I had. Unfortunately I live in England. :warning:

 

So you're sayin, you don't have dollars, you have pounds? I guess I should've said, "bet every last piece of currency you have..."

::

 

agREED...

There's ALOT of BULLSHIT Being Flung Around in this Thread...



REED:hammert:

 

Did I know for sure Pacquiao would win?

Of course not. This is boxing. And when you get 2 world class opponents, anything can happen, that's part of what makes boxing great.

And I did think there would be a chance Cotto's power, and Manny's undersized-ness could play a role.

I was still confident of Pacquiao winning though, and picked him to KO Cotto in 7. Because he is simply better than Cotto, in just about every way :kidcool:

So no, I wasn't ABSOLUTELY sure Pacquiao would win against Cotto, as if he was fighting a bum like Guzman or Valero.

Despite picking him to KO Cotto in 7, I thought it would be one of his toughest fights.