"Provodnikov grinds Tszyu down and makes him quit." - Mex Tszyu by stoppage. He would have cut Provo to ribbons.
Funny how a guy gets put on a sudden pedestal because he narrowly lost to an overrated fighter who hasn't fought in fucking eons. "Desert Tropical Depression" just couldn't keep Prov honest with his modest punches, whereas a guy like Tszyu had legendary two-fisted power. Provodnikov would never get away with holding his hands by his waist, baiting Kostya into irresponsible exchanges. I see this "mythical" matchup as being something reminiscent of the Tackie fight where a marginally skilled fighter gets outclassed by a well-rounded puncher like Tszyu. Ben Tackie vs. Ruslan Provodnikov would provide the more competitive matchup.
I, too, see the Tszyu/Tackie model as a pretty good guide for this one... Whether or not Tszyu can get the tough Russian fellow out of there is, like steve_dave said, something that we can't really know yet but probably will know better once he is in with a fellow banger... The best thing, oddly enough, that this fellow may have going for him that Tackie didn't is his awkwardness, the fact that he throws sort of sloppy, looping shots... Tackie was no Alexis Arguello, but he basically threw his punches by-the-book, Tszyu was able to map out exactly what he wanted to do defensively and pick off the shots Tackie did throw his way... The Russian is a bit wild, so it is possible he gets one or two in there that Tszyu is surprised by and maybe he can stun him once or twice... but overall, Tszyu is too good a boxer for him, he'd exploit his weaknesses
Tszyu was actually on the downside by the Tackie fight anyway. Tszyu was at his peak a few years prior when he thrashed MAG. The 99 Tszyu would w/o doubt stop Provo. Bradley cut and busted up Provo for Christ sake. Tszyu would make him look like a walking period. Never was a fan of Tszyu in his time, but I think he's highly underrated now. Bradley, Rios, Matthyse, Garcia, Peterson, Maidana, Alexander, Guerrero...... Tszyu would have fucked up all those guys. I won't even mention what he'd have done to Khan, cause it'd be criminal. And considering that Floyd is now in his mid 30's, I'd say a prime Tszyu would be a handful for him right now.
A prime Tszyu wins this one fairly handily, but he'd have a moment or two where he may get hurt. Tszyu TKO 9
