Good question. Despite being bigger than Chapo, Rosario still hit A LOT harder than Braddles and Mile High, and Chapo was an excellent counter puncher. It's possible Provo walks into too many Chapo bombs. But it's also possible Provo would be too strong down the stretch. P4P, it's mismatch, because quality wise Rosario was in a different league. But assuming a prime Rosario moves up to 140, I'd still pick Chapo, though not with great confidence.
With Chapo it is always about how bad he can hurt you and keep you hurt... That is how it always was for him against pressure fighters...
