Final Predictions: Miguel Cotto vs. Saul "Canelo" Alvarez

Just watch his non KO fights and tell me what you see. I see a very athletic boxer/puncher who likes to brawl. Until now he's been feasting on bums, which makes his power look impressive. We have to wait on two things before hyping him up.

1) Let him face someone who can take his shots and dish it out. (See Juanma-Salido, Cotto-R. Torres, Trinidad-Campas)

2) He'll eventually move up in weight. He has a big frame and will eventually fight in the WW division. Could he carry his power and his (unproven) chin up there? Could he rely on his skills to dominate a fight from round 1 - 12 if everything else fails?

Right now, I don't see him becoming anything better than Deontay Wilder. I'll gladly eat my "chango encebollado" if he proves me wrong.

 

TRAITOR!!!issed:

YOU WILL BURN IN HELL FOR THIS!!! :fist:

 

Canelo is 3:1 favorite to beat Cotto!

 

I re-watched Cotto-Geale last night. I don't think I initially gave Cotto enough credit for how fluid on his feet he was, and how sharply he was countering Geale. Granted, Geale is a bum without talent and Canelo is a good fighter with talent, BUT the fact remains Canelo isn't as mobile or fluid as Cotto.

Canelo is a straight line guy. He has yet to display any lateral, or angular movement. If Cotto's just as nimble and as sharp tomorrow as he was against Geale, I don't see how it's an easy fight for Ginger. Ginger has to be SET to get off his power, and if Cotto's never directly in front of him long enough for him to get set, Nelo's gonna be standing there eating combos.

I'm STCKING with Canelo.... but I've gone from 70-30 Canelo, then two weeks ago I was 60-40 Canelo.... now I'm 55-45 Canelo.

Cotto winning wouldn't shock me at all.

 

You're a fence sitter...straddling both sides. You have no courage or conviction to take a position.

I'm telling you straight and if I'm wrong I'll eat my crow with a slice of humble pie...but I'm telling you this: Canelo is going to beat him up...and stop him. Cotto cannot handle what Canelo is bringing. Cotto will be competitive because he's very skillful and hits hard, but he's too small and too ring worn to deal with Canelo once the ginger gets warmed up.

80-20 fight for Canelo! Vicious beatdown.

 

Wrong. Fence sitting is what Brotha REED is doing (no offense REED).

At NO POINT did I say I favored Cotto to win this fight. At no point did I even say I considered it a PICK EM. But will I lie and say I'm 100% confident Nelo will win? No. I can't lie and say that.

This is not like GGG-LeMoo, when YOU gave LeMoo a chance to win and I told you he had no shot in Hell.

I think if you're 100% confident about EITHER guy winning this fight you're talking out your ass.

Of course, if Cotto wins you're gonna have groupies saying "I KNEW Cotto would win", and if Canelo wins guys will say "I KNEW Canelo will win." But I'm not gonna pretend like I KNOW either way in this one. It's a tough fight to handicap, but yes, I THINK Canelo will win.

 

Dude, Sly is never wrong about a fight. He's the GOAT at finalizing his pick as soon as the fight ends.

 

You know I'm the premier fight prognosticator on Fightbeat (and formerly secondsout)...when it comes to big fights.

Don't let me list the gems I've written down in the past.

 

:l2::l2:

 

We can ALL list gems we've gotten wrong and gems we've gotten right.

It's easy to be right A LOT of times in boxing, because MOST fights have a clear favorite, and although upsets happen all the time, as you say boxing isn't as random chance as MMA.

In a fight like Canelo-Cotto, it's impossible to DEFINITIVELY handicap a winner. Cotto has the edge in skill and experience. Canelo has the edge in youth and power. Canelo has overall better handspeed, but Cotto usually pulls the trigger quicker. Canelo SHOULD have the edge in chin, but this is the first time it's been truly tested. Neither one has great stamina.

So there's no CLEAR separation between the two, you basically just go by a hunch. Some people have the hunch that Cotto's experience and skill will win, but I tend to think Canelo's youth and power will win.

 

Nah....

People could have said the same thing regarding Tito-Vargas, Mayweather-Pacquiao and many other big fights. Those that know the deal know the deal. YOU are unsure...but I am not. I make Canelo the CLEAR favourite...and you'll see why on fight night.

 

May-Pac and Tito-Vargas are different. Most people picking Manny were doing so with their hearts. On paper and logically speaking, Floyd was a clear favorite.

It's EASY to say Tito-Vargas was easy to pick in hindsight, but at the time it was NOT obvious who to pick. Tito was seen as the bigger puncher, but Vargas was viewed as the better technician, better chin, and bigger man.

 

Points 1 an 2 are fair.

However, he has shown an ability to box and do it well when a KO doesn't come. His last fight with Najera showed that, as well as some other fights. Now granted, the opposition isn't top notch so you make a fair point when you say 'wait and see.'

And yes, I think eventually sooner than even we think, he'll be at 147. His frame will demand it.

Now your final point... Deontay Wilder is a BUM... Whether or not Verdejo fulfills his promise is immaterial. He will be a MUCH BETTER fighter than that fraud, I can guarantee you that much if nothing else.

 

Ok, I may have gone overboard with the Deontay Wilder comparison.

 

Verdejo took a piss this morning that contained more talent than Wilder has.

 

I'll go with Canelo by UD.

Cotto starts well. The fight is even after six rounds then Canelo dominates. Cotto down twice toward the end and almost doesn't make it to the final bell.

117-111 Canelo Alvarez

 

M

ejican Pesos coming in late....

 

WAR CANELO!

 

I'm wearing my sombrero for this fight.

 

:drl: :drl: :atu: :atu:

 

WAR COTTO!!!!!!!

Cotto will put on a masterpiece.....that should lead him towards retirement....but he's not very bright so I see him coming back for the most ducked, feared, poopy inducing fighter in boxing GGG...

 

Golov could stick his face right in Cotto's girls' ass right in front of Mig, and Mig wouldn't fight him.

 

No Offense Taken Brother X...

REED Can't Recall EVER Being More CONFLICTED Over a Matchup...REED is a FAN of Both Fighters & was Among the 1st to Point Out the Physical and Stylistic Similarities btwn the 2, YEARS Ago...REED Couldn't Tell You the Last Time he's MISSED a Miguel Cotto or Canelo Alvarez Fight...That Being Said, it's BETTER for Boxing if Canelo Wins...Bigger, Younger, Stronger, (a Tad) Faster...Obviously, Canelo has More of a FUTURE in Boxing...

Nonetheless, REED's Picking Cotto...

People Keep Using the Word "Experience", which is Cotto's 1 CLEAR Edge, but they Don't ELABORATE on It Fully...Cotto Has THE Best Resume of his Era; Fighting ALL the Guys that Mattered, WHEN Those Guys Mattered...Hard to Nitpick Cotto's Resume and Say Guys were "Green" or "Shot" when he Faced Them...Cotto's Also Got Losses, BRUTAL Losses, in Fact...He's Also Faced CONSIDERABLE Adversity in WINS...Knockdowns, Cuts, You Name It...Faced EVERY Conceivable Style Too...Punchers, Brawlers, Cuties, Taller Guys, Shorter Guys, Tough Mexicans, Slick Brothers and EVERYTHING In Between...

Soooooo, What EXACTLY is Canelo Alvarez Bringing to the Table, that Miguel Cotto HASN'T Digested Already???...

The Loooooooooooonger this Bout Lasts, the BETTER it is for Cotto...Specifically, the Onus is ON Canelo to END Cotto Early &/OR Have a Huuuuuuuge Lead by the Middle of the Fight...Why???...Stamina, Bro...That LACK of Stamina...1 Thing we ALL Know about Canelo is there's LULLS in his Looooooonger Fights...It's NOT even Like he's a High Workrate Guy, STILL, Canelo has to GATHER Himself Several Times in Fights that Don't End Early...

Canelo's INEVITABLE Fatigue is Cotto's "Carpe Diem" Moment in the Fight...Even if Canelo's Whipping 'dat Ass Early, there WILL Come a Point where Canelo Takes a Round or So OFF, to Recuperate...To ALLOW Cotto to Recover, in Other Words...But If/When Canelo's Hurt or Tired, he WON'T Have that Luxury...If this Fight is EVEN or Remotely COMPETITIVE After the 6th-7th Round, Cotto WILL Win...Probably by STOPPAGE...

& REED's PREDICTING the Bout will Get to that Stage, w/Cotto Stopping Canelo by the 11th OR Winning a UD...FANTASTIC, Momentum Shifting Fight; a GENUINE "Fight of the Year" Candidate, but Cotto Experience Really DOES Pay Off Tomorrow Night...





REED

 

Nice!

I like a detailed prediction. Shows conviction.

Canelo's spurt fighting wont hurt him, Cotto will be too beat up by the middle rounds to capitalize on it.

 

I tend to see it a different way.

I think Cotto has the early edge with his movement. Canelo's not fleet footed so he's not gonna adjust and hunt Cotto down right away.

I think in the mid rounds Cotto will plant his feet more, and we'll see some exchanges. And in the exchanges I expect Canelo to badly hurt Cotto and change the tide.

 

Terrance Crawford picks Cotto.

 

Cotto's Edge in Experience will PREVENT Canelo From HIDING his Lulls...Even if Cotto's TAKEN Some Shots Prior, the Instant Canelo Needs a Breather BENEFITS Cotto...He'll Either Look to Recover OR (If he HASN'T Been Hurt) Force a Pace Canelo WON'T Appreciate...





REED

 

Even when Cotto "Boxes", he's Almost Always IN Punching Range...Given his LACK of Height and Reach, Cotto's NEVER Been a Guy that's Heavily Relied on DISTANCE...Angles, Movement, Yes, but Other than the Margarito Fights, Cotto's Been ENGAGED w/his Opponent, More than Not....

Not a Full Blown POCKET Fighter, yet Not a Jab & Move CUTEY Either....

Cotto & Canelo WILL Be in Close Proximity to 1 Another, for the Bulk of this Fight, Which is Why It'll Probably Be "Fight of the Year", Even if it's Brief....



REED

 

We shall see.

I think it's better for Canelo to come INTO the ring at 165-167 tomorrow. Cotto will weigh 160, TOPS. Probably like 158. If Canelo's 170 I don't see it as much of an advantage for. It just makes Cotto's edge in footspeed more pronounced.