As long as the Toney of the Tiberi fight doesn't show up, he should handle Tito. Masterful counterpuncher, solid pop, terrific workrate, slick, could take a shot. Toney was lighter on his feet at lower weights, although still not his strongest point. He had good footwork though. Trinidad had a lot more experience by 2001 than Toney did in 1991-92, and could still hit hard. He'd probably land some hard shots, but I wouldn't bet on him landing a surprising shot to drop and hurt Toney like Reggie Johnson did. I think Tito has a nice start in the first couple rounds, than Toney gradually takes over and picks Tito apart with brilliant counterpunching and stops Tito late.
Toney gets hit and probably dropped at some point but he should win. He was a lot more mobile at mw than the rest of his career, he was of course really slick and understood angles but he wasn't negative or methodical enough to have the sure fire easy time Hopkins did. He wouldn't be content to touch Tito and keep him from getting set over and over. He'd get bored and give more opportunities. But Trinidad didn't seem to have the size to wear an opponent down like at lower weights and Toney outlasts him and busts him up. Trinidads still dangerous late though.