I think you need to be an exceptional fighter to beat a prime Donaire between 112-118. Penalosa was solid, but not exceptional. I'm quite confident Donaire wins. Maybe a southpaw a level above Penalosa would a better matchup. A guy like Jiro Watanabe.
One interesting aspect to this is that Penalosa was tough as nails; great chin ... you wonder if he can spook Nonito a bit
