At one point in the mid 80s, this would have been a very big matchup. Mancini would be the crowd and betting favorite, but given that Arroyo seemed to do well with guys who came at him, and was a very good counterpuncher with considerable power, it's not a given for Ray.
When Arroyo was on his game his right hand counters were so precise. Mancini was more of a two handed guy, but he was not opposed, not philosophically and not in practice, to eating right hands. So would Mancini be able to get inside enough to outwork Arroyo? Would Arroyo land enough, hard enough, to make Mancini hesitate at a distance? I think that I lean towards Mancini. Arguello really hit him hard to the body when Ray got close. I don't think that Arroyo could do that and, while Harry will land some good punches, I think Ray would probably win a decision.