A matchup surely to end in a brutal KO. Does Pavlik's aggressive style work for, or against him in this one?
pavlik's also better than just about everyone Jackson beat at 160, and is also more resillient than Julian. In fact, he'd also be the biggest fighter and no worse than the 2nd biggest puncher Julian ever faced. And let's face it, Julian was purely a pitcher. He's often shown the ability to erase a defecit on the scorecards with a single shot, but never the resiliency that Pavlik has already exuded a couple of times in his career. Put Pavlik in with the middleweights Julian faced, and at the very least, the outcomes are the same (meaning he knocks out everyone before running into McClellan). And he quite possibly beats McClellan as well. Put Julian in against the guy's Pavlik's faced, and there's no guarantee the results are the same. Again, we're not talking about a prime Julian Jackson, we're talking about the version that fought at 160. A knockout either way is certainly plausible. but all I'm saying is, if Jackson can't keep Pavlik down, he's in a world of trouble. So with that, X, I see your post and raise you. I say Pavlik survives the first few rounds (perhaps peeling himself off of the canvas once or twice), and stretches Julian somewhere between rounds 8-10.
I agree with your first paragraph, save that Pavlik against the uberslick Herol Graham wouldn't have been as one-sided as you otherwise suggest IMO. It follows, therefore, that I also agree with your third paragraph (minus the McClellan part). However, the way I see it, Kelly hasn't faced anyone with anything like Jackson's single shot power. It's all well and good being resiliant against Miranda and Taylor, but that doesn't, per se, translate as resiliance against Jackson. Playing and mugging he may have been, but he got dropped when Taylor caught him. If Jackson catches him, I see no good reason to presume that he gets back up in any kind of good order. As always with Jackson, it's a case of 'can he, at some stage, hit the other guy clean'? If he probably can, I would generally tend to favour him. You say yourself that Pavlik would "perhaps have to get up once or twice". Ergo Jackson can hit him, and so I would favour him here... opcorn: (I would favour McClellan too against Kelly, for much the same reasons)
Agreed- the shot which took Herol Graham out will still be on 'Classic Knockout DVD's' (or whatever they have then!) 50 years from now. Which is why, in answer to your original question, Kelly's aggressive style works against him here. Badly against him IMHO. I'll say it again, mugging for the crowd or not, Taylor caught Pavlik and that was enough to drop him. If Taylor had enough power to drop him like that, then Jackson had more than enough to stretch him...
I actually think Julian's boxing skills get underrated somewhat... But I don't know about this one. He wasn't at his best at middleweight, and he'd be facing one of his biggest opponents ever with devastating power and great reach. Seeing how Jackson fared at 160 vs. McClellan - a taller, longer power puncher with straight shots and that big right hand - doesn't make me feel too good about his chances. Kelly would take Jackson and his power VERY seriously with no clowning...and would almost inevitably land that thundering jab and follow-up piston right almost immediately....and continue to move Jackson back (interestingly enough, Jackson had no compunction about moving backwards and trying to use his feet even though it took him out what he did best). It's tough to gauge Pavlik still to me vs. a Jackson whom we have the advantage of having seen his whole career already. But I kind of like Kelly's chances in this one. I can completely see your point though! Peace.
Hmmm... I agree that Kelly would be one of, if not the toughest assignment (maybe with G-Man) of Jackson's career. I also agree that his boxing skills ARE underrated- people perceive him as a brutalistic banger only and he was much more than this. That said, I think it would be generally agreed that the two ways to beat Jackson were to either 'hit him and not get hit', or in extreme and rare circumstances, to out bang him. IMO, Pavilk does not have the 'style' to take advantage of what ever perceived 'limitations' there are in Jackson armourary- that is best left to the likes of McCallum and even Graham (before he got iced). Kelly isn't going to dance round the the ring jabbing, dancing and clipping shots as he moves in and out of range: he will (as you point out) try to outland him by setting up with stiff, hard left jabs and teeing off with his big, straight rights. Which, IMO, leave this one to the power punch fest. And only McClellan, probably one of only a handful of 160's EVER to hit harder than Jackson, managed to outbomb Jackson. To be fair, it probably is too early to know whether Pavlik really has the power to knock Jackson out before Jackson lands his own bombs. It is, IMO, certainly a little too soon to be comparing his power with that of McClellan. But it is hard to deny that, to date at least, Kelly's style shows that he will likely will walk forward to trade, and I still say that if he comes forward, he will (mugging for the camera or keeping his hands high and chin low as he should) get hit sooner rather than later. And it is a bad, bad idea to get hit by Jackson, whether you are taking his power seriously or not... MTF :blobbox:
I didn't say anything about Pavlik easily taking out Herol Graham. I just said his run against the same guys Julian faced would've been no worse than comparable. I'll even go one further and say that Thomas Tate gets KTFO against Pavlik. Still not sure how Julian couldn't put him away (though perhaps a tell tale sign that he was on the slide). I agree with you on the Jackson part - but that's like saying so and so never faced a fighter as great as Sugar Ray Robinson. How many punchers are around today that CAN compare to Jackson? Very few and even less at middleweight. But my point was, to date, Pavlik has faced a better collection of punchers than Jackson. Miranda's a bigger puncher than anyone Jackson beat at middleweight. Zertuche and Zuniga are probably better pure punchers than any of Julian's middleweight victims as well. That's the point I was trying to make - Pavlik's faced punchers, and has come off of the canvas twice already to stop his opponents. Julian's won fights where he was down on the cards, but never when he's been dropped. I can understand this, and it just goes to show that there's clearly more than one outcome. I can envision Jackson knocking out Pavlik, and also Pavlik knocking out Jackson. I just believe Pavlik has more options. Julian can either overwhelm him early, or rally from behind to take him out with one shot. Pavlik can overwhelm him early, box long enough to outlast Julian and take over late, rally from behind, come off of the canvas, etc. But no doubt that Pavlik's leaky (borderline non-existent) defense is a serious liability in this match up
My feelings havent changed. Julian blasts the alchy out pretty quickly. The shots that G-man survived early from Jackson would have sent Pavlik back to Youngstown in a casket.
Julian Jackson is overrated. People seem to forget that he was basically nothing with a frightening punch. Now it's possible that Jackson KOs Pavlik with teh aformentioned frightening power. But that is all he has, a punchers chance. Jackson was a SMALL middleweight and Pavlik is a HUGE middleweight. Two sides of the size extremes in this one. You gotta go with pavlik in this one.
A frightening punch is enough when your in with a hittable, straight up guy like Pavlik. Kelly has a decent chin, but its a dentable one. And if theres anything thats overrated its Pavlik's power. Of course he had the power to take Jackson out, but I tend to believe he hurts JJ a few times, but is ultimately caught with a Jackson hook he doesnt see, and KTFO. Jackson was JUST punch. He had quick hands as well, and just swooped in his left hook and BANG. Hense why he was called the Hawk.
