Hopkins will beat Pavlik, and here's why...

Hopkins WONT beat Pavlik, and heres why... he's a washed up geezer who throws 10 punches a round.

 

no matter how crafty the mutha fucka is, anyone can beat 10 punches a round right

 

If Hopkins wins this fight, then more than likely it'll be the WORST big fight since Mosley-Forrest II. I see very little chance of Bernard winning without muddying the waters and stinking out the joint.

 

Word...Stafford would pick Obama, Dr. King or Chris Rock to beat Pavlik over twelve rounds of Championship boxing.

Not because they are black and Pavlik is white, of course, but because blah blah blah blah...blah blah blah...blah blah blah...the racist one has spoken!

MTF:shit:

 

I think this fight follows a broadly similar pattern to the Calzaghe-Hopkins fight.

Hopkins will look reasonably good early on, slipping shots, throwing good, crisp counters and generally picking Pavlik off as he tries to enforce his style and will on the older man.

He may even drop Kelly, whose chin is far from impenetrable and whose style and defence invites the kind of shots Hopkin's will look (sparsely) to throw.

Eventually, by around five, Bernard will start to slow, throwing crisp headbutt-groin shot-grapple combinations instead of hard crisp counters abd Kelly will be able to start to walk the old man down, landing jabs and sharp rights in patches, looking a bit sloppy but winning the rounds comfortably.

Going into the final rounds, Hopkins will be FUCKED- too old to deter Pavlik and too tired to get out of range anymore, taking rests at every available opportunity and thrusting his groin upwards to try and catch a body shot in the groing area in a desperate attempt to win by DQ in between throwing more accurate and telling headbutt-groin shot-grapple combos.

Eventually, the final bell will ring, Pavlik will have looked terrible because he has had little to punch at for about six rounds, but he will win comfortably and Hopkins will have lost to another 'white guy' despite his ridiculous ring side protestations after the fight.

Mark my words...

MTF

 

And let's not forget the infamous PavliKKK nickname that Sly tried to put on Kelly after he KOed Taylor, who Sly was pumping up as the next big thing.

 

Pav migth be the first to Stop Hops

 

dsimon writes:

Very bold prediction Sly one you have my respect.:bears: In your favor I would argue that Joe did not win that fight. At least one judge gave it to Bernard and I could see it. At the very least there was one guy who was knocked down that fight and one guy who looked the worse for wear and in neither case was in Hopkins.

Now on to your prediction..... Pavlik is better than you think. Your reasons are sound and yes Bernard might catch Pavlik on occasion becasue of the timing and straight aheadness. But at the end of the night Pavlik will get the Win

 

Still obsessed with me i see....and still alive unfortunately.

 

:: :: :notallthere:

 

Ah....I can always rely on dsimon, REED and a few others to give an intelligent boxing response to a boxig thread.

Good thing the forum isn't filled with bitter stressed old men like Broadwayjoe that keep forgeting to take their metamucil every morning.

 

you know.. I am really excited to see this fight..

on one hand you have Bernard who NO ONE looks good againest..
he might just be too cagey and experienced for Pavlik..

but on the other hand..I think Pavlik is somewhat under-rated.. he did STRETCH JT.. and he has looked VEry good at times..

it's a hard one to say..

I have picked againest bernard before and been wrong and said I'd never pick againest him again (unless he had fought Roy)

but.. I find myself thinking maybe Pav can do it

 

I too am going with the upset here.


Biggest reason is because I think the 10 pound jump is going to be tough for Pavlik, whom at 166 didn't show the same punching power against Taylor that he did at 160.


KP is busy, but not nearly as busy as Calzaghe I dare say. Joe is a different fighter who's really herky jerky, throws alot of slapping shots with not commitment, and is quick on his feet to move in and out. Pavlik is more methodical in the mold of a Trinidad in that he comes forward, jabs to set up, puts shots together well but they're not very fast and he leaves himself wide open in the process.

I think Pavlik will be the one that tires here after taking alot of shots, plus carrying the extra 10 pounds in weight for the whole fight. I think Hopkins scores a knockdown sometime in the fight and earns a competitive decision win.

 

I thought Pavlik fought a really good second fight with Taylor. The difference being Taylor fought a far better fight than the first time around. I don't think the weight had anything to do with it. Remember he also beat JT twice and Pavlik couldn't even do it once. Not anything resembling a clear victory anyway.

 

The Pavlik stuff has already been touched on (and exposed to a degree), so let's focus on your Hopkins part.

Are you basing your prediction on the Bernard of the past few fights (Calzaghe, Wright, Tarver), or also including intangibles like "every great fighter has one last great performance" in believing that Bernard will get up for this fight more so than the aforementioned?

Serious question, and my response is a bit dependent on your answer.

For now, I'll just say that I agree in seriously doubting that this fight ends in a knockout one way or another, even if not for the same reasons that you suggest. Bernard's at a point where he can get got by the right fighter, but that he'll exhaust his entire bag of tricks (illegal or otherwise) before allowing that to happen - if not deciding on DQ becoming a viable option.

If Pavlik allows his bosses to program him into "No business fights allowed" mentality going in, it could prove to be disastrous. He'd have to stun Bernard early AND hope that Bernard doesn't begin clinching and butting from the outset in order to enjoy the type of domination some are HOPING will take place.

IMO, his best chances of causing damage will have to come early, where the back six become a matter of "Win today, look good every other time." I think Pavlik's fans will be forgiving if he were dominate in a bout that otherwise fails to entertain, more so than if he were to struggle his way to victory the way Calzaghe did. So few are predicting a watchable fight that anything better than that will be icing on the cake for Pavlik.

 

you mean Hopkins, si?

 

Doh. Yeah, that's what I meant.

 

Wow. That certainly was a weak reponse. Not at all imaginative.

 

agREED. Good post. There is no particularly good reason to pick Hopkins at all. The most he can hope for is to keep it somewhat close.

 

Especially considering you're one of the best posters around here when you show up. ::

 

A plausible scenario, but not very likely. Hopkins won't have a reach or height advantage which means he'll need to be closer to Pavlik to get in those lead right hands. Pavlik has shown that anyone who stands on the outside with him gets KTFO.

That's why I think Hopkins reverting to the mugging style will benefit him. It negates Pavlik's power and reach. I don't believe Pavlik is a good inside fighter or at least I haven't seen him fight on the inside very often.

I suggest you go back and watch the Holmes fight...Hopkins completely nullfied Keith's jab and broke him down thereafter. That's his fight. Not standing on the outside hoping to single punch his way to victory.

Didn't we see him lose TWICE to Taylor and once to Calzaghe with the exact same style? Why go with a formula which caused him to lose?

he beat Tarver because he was able to get a little closer and beat Tarver to the punch (plus Tarver bitched up, which didn't help).

Hopkins needs to fight more along those lines.

"However"

With all that said...I think Pavlik at 170 will be stronger than many believe and he'll be able to handle 'Nard's shots. I'm not certain that once Hopkins tastes Pavlik's power that he'll quickly drop that plan, look to survive then bitch about losing another decision.

 

I think Pavlik will give Hops the worst beating he's ever taken in the ring

 

Like some have indicated Hops is old and can not throw more than 8-10 punches per round. There is no way in hell he beats Pavlik with that type of activity. As far as Hops getting stopped. Can't see that happening either. Hops will not let that happen. Now I do see Hops having some success. Wh? Cause Pavlike is there to be hit. Hell the last dude Pavlik fought he was able to land some shots on him. So Hops will have a moment or 2 but not enough to win the fight. I'll Holla 5000

 

The trick is that Hopkins can reduce his opponent to throw that little punches too. He doesn't stay at one place long enough for the other guy to lock and load (Pavlik doesn't need much time but usually neither does Calz) and after tasting Hopkins' counters even Pavlik might have to think twice before attacking

 

Hops is on the slide, and this is coming from someone who has respected Hops since long before he trounced Tito. He can't deal with volume anymore although he is crafty and always in top shape. He's just too old and his increasingly conservative style shows that.

I don't think he gets stopped but he might get dropped once or twice. Personally, I think he loses a UD and gets dropped once. It'll get ugly in the late rounds and there'll probably be some booing.

 

an exaggeration, but you're correct in citing in Bernard's ability to slowing down any fight to a crawl. Opponent's workrates drop from their previous fights, but they're still buiser than Hopkins by considerable margins

 

Pavlik definitely "can" fight inside. And he's good at it too. Taylor held him everytime they got close, so there was no such fighting in those match-ups, but he's shown in his previous bouts that he can fight very well inside with upper-cuts, body-shots and short left hooks.

There's no way Hopkins, even in his prime, let alone at this stage in his career and against Pavlik, will be able to use the mauling style he employed against Holmes. He'd get knocked on his ass if he tried it. And if he somehow avoided that fate, he'd be gassed by round 8 and stopped as a result in the later rounds for sure. He simply isn't the same steroid laden youngin that he was when he fought Holmes, and he certainly won't have the strength advantage he enjoyed against Holmes. And finally, as I said before, Pavlik will not oblige Hopkins by tying up inside as Holmes did. Rather, he will fight him there if Hopkins rushes in - exactly the response that will diffuse Hopkins' mauling style (if by some miracle he's able bodied to employ it).

I suspect Hopkins' only option will be to try to pot-shot Pavlik with lead right hands, and then hold him in order to keep the pace nice and slow. This is the only way I can see him surviving 12 rounds and it's the only way he could possibly win. But that doesn't mean I think he will. I think Pavlik will win and possibly by stoppage depending on the level of effort Hopkins puts forth in order to win. If Hopkins "really" tries to win, he'll be stopped. Otherwise, he'll lose a decision in which he humiliates himself with a non-performance that save for a RJJ rematch could result in his no longer being a PPV attraction.

 

unless hopkins is shot to shit, i can't see why he shouldnt win.

calzaghe sets a frenetic pace, which at hopkins' age wasn't able to handle, but even so, he did enough to win on handful of folks' scorecards.

pavlik is more methodical (and less mobile than taylor or calzaghe) and likes to take time w/ his punches, so i wonder how it will turn out if hopkins makes it in the later rounds.

either way, only thing that prevents me from confidently picking hopkins is his age.

 

Pavlik may be methodical with his punches, but that doesn't mean his work-rate isn't very high. That alone should assure Pavlik his victory.

 

Yep...if Hopkins throws 10 punches per round and you throw 15, you've thrown 50% more punches than Hopkins.