Hard to say. Robinson was proven to be quite beatable at 160. However he usually won the rematch..and emphatically. Same would probably happen here. Monzon wins the first fight by decision (outmuscling Robinson and troubling him with a hard jab and stright right) and Robinson reverses the decision in the return (with slick boxing and moving and eye catching combos).
Monzon because he was a better middleweight. Robinson would probably get his revenge in the rematch though via decision.
Carlos would have beaten Robby on points in a rough fight after falling behind a bit early, his size, reach, and ruggedness would have been too much for Ray.