Pavlik-Martinez, Kessler-Froch: Early picks

Starting on the 17th we have two weeks of big fights building up to the MEGA fight on May 1st. I'm not looking forward to these fights as much as May-Mosley, but never the less I'm excited for Pavlik-Martinez, and VERY excited for Froch-Kessler.

On paper I think common sense has to slightly favor Pavlik, and Kessler in these respective matchups, yet Froch & Martinez both have EXCELLENT chances of pulling off upsets. Well, actually Froch-Kessler wouldnt be an upset if Froch won, cause I believe Carl is the favorite, but regardless he should still be a slight underdog in my book.

Froch's style very much plays into Kessler's strengths. I know its now fashionable to write Kessler off as nothing, but consider that Froch is nowhere NEAR as quick and athletic as Calz, and Ward were. Kessler should be able to establish his jab in this fight, and if that happens... Froch is in for a rough night. Froch CAN win though I admit, but he cant be waiting around as he did for most of the Taylor fight. He needs to jump on Kess and force him into a dog fight RIGHT AWAY. Kessler has gotta keep with the jab though despite everythin, cause if the distance closes Froch has that dangerous right uppercut which can do damage. I think whatever Kess has left in the tank he'll muster for this fight, considering he's fighting in front of his home fans. Kessler might not be the mentally toughest guy in the world, but he DOES have pride and I have no doubt he'll fight to the end in this one. I dont know if the version of Kessler that beat Andrade still exsists, but if by chance THATS the version of Kessler that shows up, I think Froch is gonna get his ass kicked badly. Kessler by UD is my official pick for this fight. Also consider that in the Super 6 the hometown fighter has YET to lose.

As for Pav-Martinez, I'm going back and forth with this matchup everyday. Martinez has the skill and speed to box circles around Pav, but I dunno if I trust his stamina. Sergio has a tendacy to take his foot off the gas, and he cant afford to do that with Ghost. Pavlik is no Kermit the frog. He can grind down Martinez and stop him in the late going. However, this is the biggest fight of Martinez's life. If he can get fully up for it, and maintain himself for 12 rounds, I can easily see him winning a wide UD. At this point I'm SLIGHTLY favoring Pavlik, but not by much.

How says the rest of the forum?

 

Carl Froch is 1 of the More SLEPT On Undefeated World Champions in Recent Memory...No, Froch Isn't GREAT In Any Particular Area, but he's NOT Awful in Any Particular Area, Either...& he's VERY TOUGH Mentally...

TOUGHER than Mikkel Kessler is, Mentally...

Froch is Willing to Do & Endure ANYTHING to Win...Kessler ISN'T...Froch WANTS it More & that Will Manifest Itself IN the Ring...Froch will BEND the Rules, TAUNT Kessler & Make him UNCOMFORTABLE All Around...& It'll Lead to a Fairly CONVINCING Decision Win...

REED DOESN'T Understand the Logic Behind Pavlik-Martinez...Sure, Martinez Acquitted Himself WELL in the Disputed Loss to Tall Paul, but his Style is ALL WRONG for Pavlik...It Almost Seems like Pavlik's People R Trying to SLIGHT Tall Paul by Facing Martinez Instead, but it Could Bite them in the Ass...

Tall Paul is THERE to B Hit, which Plays to Pavlik's STRENGTHS...Instead, they have a QUICK, MOBILE SOUTHPAW that Can Punch a Little Bit???...REED Favors Pavlik & WANTS Pavlik to Win, but NOBODY Should B Surprised if he's THOROUGHLY Outboxed En Route to a 7-5, 8-4 Type of LOSS...




REED:kidcool:

 

You should go to Eastside forum. He's like a god on there. Plus he's the betting FAVORITE in this fight, so he's not being slept on.

BTW brah REED - I think the logic behind Pav-Martinez is HBO trying to set up Pavlik-Bute should both of them win. But if Kelly cant deal with Martinez, then the chances are slim of him beating Bute... who's a much bigger, more powerful version of Martinez.

 

Pavlik hurts himself as far as I'm concerned by fighting another junior middleweight. I guess the HBO circuit is to blame. Pavlik wins, primarily by virtue of his size advantage and punching power (though his jab helps). Williams, by the way, lost to Martinez in my opinion.

Kessler rebounds from his loss to Ward and beats Froch easier than most expect.

 

I was a big Pavlik fan for awhile(REED can vouch for this) until he got embarassed by Hop, made a million and one excuses about it, and hasnt fought a breathing opponent until now. And yes like you said, Martinez is a natural jnr middle.

Kelly's ppl claim he's a natural middle, but I dont buy it anymore. I think they're intentionally keeping him at 160, cause 168 is too deep.

At 168 theres a very good chance that Kelly loses to Ward, Bute, Dirrell, Kessler, Froch, and AA.

Notice I left off Allen Green, cause he sucks.

 

Froch ain't beating Kessler. Froch is a good fighter, but the guys he's been in with in his last two fights made him look better than he is. Taylor was well ahead on points through most of the fight. Dirrell was also taking an early lead. The difference here will be that Kessler isn't going to turn into a bitch like Dirrell or fade and get KO'd like Taylor. Kessler is skilled enough to outbox Froch and durable enough to last 12 and take the decision. Kessler is winning this fight.

Pavlik vs Martinez is a good fight. For as defensive as Martinez is, he's not that hard to find. Pavlik will land. How will Martinez react? Also Cintron who is not even close to the boxer Pavlik is was able to keep the fight close enough for a robbery of a draw to occur. So I am leaning toward Pavlik by UD in this one. I wouldn't be too surprised if Martinez managed to pull it off though, I just don't expect that to happen.

 

Kessler clear.
Martinez clear.

I like Froch a lot and I like Pavlik more than Martinez so I don't really care who wins either fight. I'm still picking Kessler to win the tournament unlike all of you wusses who have abandoned him post-Ward.

 

Then there's Other "Wusses" like REED, who Knew & PREDICTED that Kessler was OVERRATED All Along....



REED:hammert:

 

Speaking of all these fighters... Ive always wanted to see a Froch vs Pavlik matchup. I know it wont happen anytime soon due to Super 6, but its just a fight I'd love to see!

 

That's kind of the way i see Pavlik-Martinez. I can't say i'll be shocked whatever the outcome although i do have to favor Pavlik. He'll have to be at his best though.

 

If Martinez is to win he's gonna either have to stop Pav, or beat him by a WIDE margin. If the fights close, you know damn well Kelly's gonna get it. The fights in A.C. and Martinez has shitty luck.

 

Pavlik has been out of the ring for a long time and hasn't faced a quality opponent for an even longer stretch.

If he's rusty and not on point i could see Martinez outboxing him.

 

Definitely. I think Martinez is gonna have to raise his game though. Fighting like did vs Cintron wont cut it. Even though he was robbed vs the frog, he was too innactive. Had he let his hands go more, he woulda overwhelmed Cintron and stopped him. Pav is certainly a whole different animal then Cintron.

Against Pavlik he's gonna have to be one point at all times, and land some big shots early to make Pavlik respect him. If he can get Kelly thinking in center ring, the fight is his. And yes, its possible Pav will be rusty. Plus he's NEVER faced a quick silver SP before. And if he is rusty... he's fucked.

The real key will be can Martinez seriously hurt Pavlik? I suspect he can, and if he can early then its very possible Kelly will be the one we see get stopped.

This is honestly a 50-50 fight. If Pav wins he deserves credit, cause Martinez is a top fighter w/a tough style.

 

Anybody else see Kessler-Froch somewhat similar stylewise way to Hatton-Tszyu?

It seemed as if a guy coming forward with a lot of pressure and a sub par defense would get slaughtered by a compact accurate straight-punching guy with pop.

Some boxers need room to punch and time to think. Froch might be able to pull it out even though it might look on paper like he'll get punished.

 

Thats not a bad comparison. Only a few differances.

1. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think Kessler has more left in the tank then did Tszyu. I think Ward beating him had more to do with styles, rather then Kess being past it. But maybe he is over the hill, its possible.

2. Hatton at that time had very quick feet to close the distance on Tszyu and smother his punches. Froch doesnt really come in with that same type of quickness, thus he'll be easier to time. Plus with that low left hand of his he's gonna be a sucker for Kessler's right cross.

3. Hatton-Tszyu took place in England and Hatton was allowed to get away with alot of rough, and questionable tactics. This fight is in Kessler's backyard, and I'm sure they're not gonna let Froch get too rough if you know what I mean.

4. Whereas Tszyu always excelled vs guys who gave him space, and tried to box him, I think Kessler is the opposite. Tszyu was always good at handling speed, but Kessler cant handle speed. But Kessler does very well vs guys like Froch who come at him.

It is a good analogy though, and maybe your right. Kessler in alot of ways does somewhat remind me of Tszyu, though not nearly as talented or as good as Kostya was.

And Froch to me isnt as talented as a prime Hatton was, though maybe he'll prove me wrong.

 

Agreed on all points, especially #1. Kessler may have had his confidence shaken up but it's not as if he's well past it.

Kessler is the more talented of the two, but Froch definitely is tougher both physically and mentally.

I'm curious to see what happens if Froch is able to handle some clean Kessler shots and still come forward. If Froch is able to maintain the pressure i think he can break Kessler's will.

 

Everyone picking Froch I think is banking on Kessler being diminished. And they might be right. But in the words of PBF, "like I said before"... if Kessler can regain the form he had vs Andrade... he's gonna pick Froch apart.

I think some ppl are OVERRATING Froch's chin. Both Dirrell, and Taylor had showed he can be hurt and dropped. If Kessler is able to seriously hurt him, I think Froch is pretty much fucked, because of how straight and accurate Kessler is when he gets going.

 

The bottom line is... with Ward's quickness and butting, its kinda unclear where Kessler stands. Some now question his desire, but on the 24th we'll find out for SURE!

With Froch's style, its pretty simple. Either he's gonna bring out the best in Kess, or Kess will fold. One of the two. I'm banking on the former... partially because Imma Kessler fan.

 

I don't see Hatton as a good comparison to Froch. I think he's more like Maussa and Librado, only a lot better.

And Tszyu was more reliant on talent and power. Kessler is has both, but he's almost totally reliant on skill and technique...like a busy Abraham (although I'm sure there's a far better comparison out there).

I think most of us would say Froch should have lost by now with his resume. That's why I can't help but like him a lot. He's a tough, tough sob.

 

Pavlik actually fought in December - in fact a week or two after Martinez. It had to have been after, because everyone made a big stink about his coming back so close after Williams-Martinez. I don't get the ring-rust argument.

No doubt it's been a while since he fought someone with a pulse. Like REED said, Pavlik should win, but a 7-5, even 8-4 fight either way wouldn't be surprising, and it would be a bit of poetic justice for Kelly to fuck around and lose to Martinez. My official pick is Pavlik by decision, though.

I like Kessler over Froch. One thing I've noticed in the tournament - aside from the hometown fighters winning every fight, is the fact that the visiting fighter seems so clueless as to how fights are handled on the road.

Dirrell thought he could get away with stinking out the joint and leaving UK with a decision. Kessler and Abraham both turned to the ref way too much the moment things were anything short of squeaky clean, indicative of the preferential treatment they're used to at home.

I mention this because I wonder how much Froch will be able to get away with in Denmark. Granted, Kessler won't move anywhere near as much as Dirrell, so chances are Froch doesn't resort to such tactics as early or as often. It can argued that he's more resourceful than Kessler, but styiistically he seems to be a perfect fit for him, especially considering the road trip and the location being far away from Copenhagen to where the UK fans will be less willing to travel to support him.

Kessler by at least a decision. A late stoppage wouldn't completely surprise me, but decision seems to be the safe pick.

 

A big reason why I'm picking Kess.

 

Xplosive - is Frock seriously the betting favourite?? Wow, how Kessler's stock has fallen, and Frock's risen.

And Jake - fair points. It's actually been VERY interesting to see the behaviour of the away fighters. As you said, the naivety and stupidity of Dirrell to think he could run for 12 rounds and get the decision, in the UK, as the challenger to the title.

Then the weird "help me ref" displays by Arabham and Kessler were absolutely indicative of them being baby'd in their countries. Which shows it's actually a bad thing to protect your fighter too much, and have them fight in this hometown bubble.

Frock though? He's just a tough, rough and ready, ball of determination.

The only thing I could see going against Frock is actually a shitty hometown ref that would take points away from Frock for no real reason, or let Kessler get away with more etc.

But Frock isn't exceptionally dirty, and he's not the sort of fighter that relies on a ref for help.

I think Frock wins. Kessler was a bit overrated to begin with, and since getting soudly beaten by Calzaghe, he appears to have lost a step.

Sure Kessler is an overall better boxer, but Frock has the toughness and determination, and mental fortitude to beat Kessler.

 

Nah, Kessler is still the favorite although at a time it was close to even odds. Since then Kessler must have gotten bet a good but and he's around a 1.6 to 1 fav.

 

My bad then. I was under the impression Froch had become the slight favorite.

 

Nah, he just SHOULD B, that's All...



REED:mj:

 

No he shouldn't. I guess we have seen Kessler can't handle smart fighters with speed, but Froch is made for Kessler.

 

Its a shame Ward got hurt. Brother REED woulda had to deal with Froch, AND Green gettin thier asses kicked on the 24th!

 

The BIGGEST Problem w/Kessler is he LACKS Any INTANGIBLE Qualities Whatsoever...He's TECHNICAL to a FAULT...If U're Doing a Paint by #'s Boxing Video, U'd Use ALOT of Mikkel Kessler Footage as a "How To" Example...

But like REED Said, there's ZERO Intangibles There....Kessler's Ability to ADJUST, to Come from BEHIND, to WEATHER Storms, etc., is AWFUL...The LEAST Bit of Adversity Seems to UNNERVE Kessler MORE than it Should a Guy that's Soooooooooooo Highly Rated by Soooooooooo Many...

A Guy like Froch will Actually B FUELED by Fighting in Kessler's Homeland...Froch has a Level of DEFIANCE about him that will B BOLSTERED by a Hostile Environment, as it was in the Taylor Fight...

This Fight will B EASIER for Froch than Many Thinks it will B...Carl Froch WON'T B on Many "How-To" Boxing Videos...He's NOT a "Box by #'s" Sort Either, but he'll ILLUSTRATE that he's a BETTER Fighter than Mikkel Kessler...



REED:hammert:

 

Froch's biggest problem is his lack of world class skills. Sorry but his toughness isn't going to get it done in this 1.

 

Like I said, if Froch is to have any hope to win he's gonna have to force Kess into a dog fight EARLY! He cant wait to come on late like he did with JT. Unlike Taylor, Kessler doesnt fade down the stretch. If Froch gets behind on the cards with Kess, I dont think he's gonna drag himself out this time. The early rounds will tell us alot. If Froch can force an early war, I like his chances. But if Mikkel gets his distance, and jab going early, I'm tellin you.... Froch is fucked.