Well one things for sure... there'd be no Olympic testing in this one.:: Seriously... I dunno how well Manny would carry 154, and a prime Vargas was better then the shop worn Cotto that Manny beat. Still, speed always killed Nando, and if Manny could still maintain his speed at 154 it'd be big trouble for Vargas.
Nice opening line :: I was making the point in the Vargas-Mayweather thread how respected the young Vargas was, & how history has probably gone about under-rating his legacy somewhat. Successes over Wright & Quartey at his level of experience were huge. He fought a gallant & fairly competitive battle with a top-of-his-game Trinidad, as well. Did likewise with a relatively near-peak De La Hoya. I would honestly favour Vargas to be too rough & too savage at close-quarters. Xplosive makes a valid point about speed, though, & I have to admit, Pacquiao has made a fool out of me twice whilst moving up in weight (yours truly picked De La Hoya over him in eight, & selected Hatton to stop him in ten), so I wouldn't be shocked to see Pacquiao win. However, if the odds were right, I would do something I've only ever once felt compelled to do --- bet on Boxing.
Pacquiao has proven he has the speed and skills to take on and beat bigger guys, but i think 147 is his absolute limit. The closest style and size matchup would be Miguel Cotto who did have some success early. I think a prime Vargas is a much bigger challenge @ 154 than Cotto @ welter. It's competitive, for a while but i just think Fernando is just too big. (especially if there is no catch-weight clause)
I'll take Pacquiao, but not with total confidence. He's just better at everything, his only disadvantage here being size. Give me one of the greatest fighters ever over the big fight knockout victim.