Who would like to see the predictions league back again? I'm up for keeping up to date, tracking scores etc, plus anyone else wishing to help can do so. We could start with the Bradley/Alexander card? What do you guys think?
(To Hut) You'll have to describe/explain your theory, as my brain isn't working properly tonight. With the fighter A/B rounds 1-4, 5-8, 9-12 matter, how would you put this down as an example if you think a fighter will win by UD?
For decisions there are 3 picks - Fighter A by UD, Fighter B by UD or 'Close decision' aka anything where the judges are split. Because that way you've picked the real dynamic of the fight. If you think its likely to be razor close and you plump for fighter A but fighter B gets the nod by SD or its a draw, you've foreseen the action more accurately than another guy who thought fighter B was gonna dominate. Likewise with stoppage picks, you should get 10 points if the stoppage comes in the round you pick or a round on either side and less if the stoppage comes at a different period in the fight as you envisioned. But there should be a leeway and a sliding scale as youget further from the round you predicted. If I predict round 6 and it happens in round 7, thats as spot on as humanly possible and deserves more points than a person who picked 1 or 11. Likewise, if you give people the opportunity to make say 2 outcome picks rather than 1, with less points for contingency pick 2,you give people a chance to really demonstrate they've grasped the dynamic of the fight in terms of probabilities based on the style mesh. So person who recognizes that two outcomes are most likely gets a chance to have that analysis rewarded with points. Basically it should be about rewarding picking the fight dynamic right rather than pretending we've made nostradamic, precise foresights, IMO.
Sounds abit complicated at the minute to me, but i'll go over it in the morning. Lets see who's up for the league during the course of the next few days and other suggestions and hopefully we can get this up and running by the Bradley/Alexander fight.
I'll flesh it out tomorrow. It needn't be complicated and as I said, I'll happily take care of the tabulations.
I think the way to do the round pick KOs is to award full points for a KO pick with a round leeway on either side. 8 points for 2 round leeway and 6 points for any margin above that. ---- For example If Montiel/Donaire ends with Montiel winning by KO in the 7th. You predict Montiel KO 8 - 10 points. (leeway of 1) Slice predicts Montiel KO 9 - 8 points (leeway of 2) Irish predicts Montiel KO 2 - 6 points (leeway of more than 2) I predict Donaire KO 7 - 0 points. (wrong outcome, wrong guy!) -------- With decisions there should 2 types - UDs and 'close decisions' which covers all decisions where the judges are split (D, SD, MD). Really, if a fight is so close that the result is contentious the only prediction that was meaningful is that it'd be very close. We can't predict minutia and it's stupid to reward one guy full points in such a scenario and another nothing based on tiny margins. ------ So if Montiel/Donaire had ended with a SD to Donaire. REED predicted 'close decision' 10 points. (REED understood this'd be razor close) Sly predicted Donaire by UD - 5 points (right guy but not quite the right dynamic) Cdogg predicted Montiel UD 3 points. (wrong guy, but he knew it'd go the distance) I predict Montiel KO 11 (I be tripping, holmes) That simple. ------- Additional to that I really think we should have two guesses to demonstrate that we really understood the probable outcomes. Exact same system for the second guess but with half the points for the 2nd guess. And the points for both guesses should count that way guys who are CERTAIN a fight is gonna go a specific way or in a specific way with a little leeway get that certainty rewarded. Example - Alexander UDs Bradley TKO predicts 1) Alexander UD (10 points) 2) Alexander UD (5 points) Feebes predicts 1) Alexander UD (10 points) 2) Close decision (2.5 points) Shake & bake predicts Close decision (5 points) Alexander UD (5 points) Bigdawg predicts 1) Close decision (5 points) 2) Bradley UD (0 points) I predict 1) Bradley KO 10 (zero points) 2) Close decision (2.5 points)
There aren't terribly many fights big enough to include in the next couple of months. Jan 29 Devon Alexander vs. Timothy Bradley Jr. (WBC/WBO junior welterweight unification) February 19 Fernando Montiel vs. Nonito Donaire (WBO/WBC bantamweight championship) Felix Sturm vs. Ronald Hearns (WBA middleweight championship) March 12 Miguel Cotto vs. Ricardo Mayorga (WBA junior middleweight championship) Miguel Vazquez vs. Leonardo Zappavigna (IBF lightweight championship) Yuri Foreman vs. Pawel Wolak (junior middleweight) March 19 Vitali Klitschko vs. Odlanier Solis (WBC heavyweight championship) Lucian Bute vs. Brian Magee (IBF super middleweight championship) Steve Molitor vs. Takalani Ndlovu (IBF junior featherweight championship) We might be best just including all of those in the first round ATM and letting people amend their picks nearer the time if they like. Since we;re starting in January have the thing run for a year & have a 2011 fightbeat prediction champion. Have 4 rounds - one for every quarter, so people only have to come in and make picks once every 3 months if that's all the can be arsed with (but let them amend their picks as they choose until say 12 hours to fight time if they like).
Add them to the thread I started and remember you get two guesses. Pick Bradley by UD twice if you're very confident in it. (I may do the same)
