I'd go with Donaire. Initially I was thinking maybe Penalosa could do what Rigo did, but Rigo is a bigger/stronger man than Penalosa with much bigger firepower. I think he outboxes Donaire in spots, but ultimately I think Pena would struggle with Donaire's power and handspeed. I think you have to be SPECIAL to beat prime Donaire at the lower weights, and by lower weights I mean below 122. I mean Olivares/Jofre level of special. Penalosa was excellent, but not good enough.
While I don't think you quite need to be Jofre/Olivares level guy to beat Donaire, I do agree Donaire wins this one. Penalosa makes it difficult because he wouldn't give Donaire many opportunities to counter, but he didn't have the movement to take Donaire out of his comfort zone. He'd go spots of out boxing Donaire, but Donaire would still be comfortable in his role, and he'd likely pick Penalosa off with pot shots.
Donaire and Inoue are both really underrated head-to-head at 115 IMO. I'd take them both over Galaxy, Moon and Jiro.
