Estrada vs Choco II: Final Predictions

Sorry, I've fallen off the boxing wagon in recent weeks. Only a few days away from this one. Final predictions?

 

Estrada has been one of my favorite current fighters for some time (since he upset the Hawaiian Punch), but it wouldn't surprise me if this is one of those strange instances in which one fighter still has another's number even when past his prime, i.e.: Robinson-Olson, Nelson-Ruelas, Hill-Tiozzo, etc.

 

Picking Gonzalez by SD

 

I haven't picked an upset all year, what the Hell? Choco by decision.

 

I'm not writing Gonzalez off. He's been having a sort of late-career renaissance, and has honestly looked more impressive in his last two fights than Estrada has. And after all, he did win the last one. Estrada hasn't exactly set the world on fire in his outings vs Beamon and Cuadras. I thought he was more hittable vs Dewayne, and clearly looked worse vs Cuadras. Although it's abundantly clear that Cuadras roided up for that one, Estrada still didn't really impress. He's been looking easier to buy and more fragile in each outing since the Rungvisai rematch, whereas Gonzlalez has looked better and better since his rematch with SSR.

I watched their first fight this morning, and I think it was very evenly matched in almost all departments. The difference was how Chocolatito imposed himself on Estrada. He was strong enough physically to bull Estrada back when he had him up against the ropes, and he was able to cut the ring off brilliantly. A nice little bonus to being the constant aggressor and having he more effective footwork meant that whenever Estrada tried to attack, he could step in real close and smother the attacks. Nowadays though, Roman's speed in how he shifts through angles and cuts off the ring is waning, and he won't be the stronger guy. So I'm going with Estrada. He'll be much bigger this time than he was then, as he normally rehydrates between 10-15lbs, and he's naturally bigger anyway. Not to mention that he now has much more experience than he did then, as well as having his 'man-strength', so to speak. Gonzalez is obviously on the wrong side of his prime, and isn't as good at 115 as he was at 108.

I think with neither being so good defensively now, both seeming to be a bit easier to hurt, and neither having as good foot-speed, means that I really do think this will end up a war. Unless of course I'm all-wrong about Estrada and Cuadras II was just a poor performance and he boxes circles around Choco.

 

Don't forget - SSR fights friday

 

Brandon Lee fights tonight

 

estrada didnt look great vs beamon but gonzalez looked equally beatable vs israel gonzalez his last fight. if he shows up flat like he did that night estrada will beat the shit outta him. Im expecting gonzalez to be sharp like he was vs yafai and win a decision, landing the more compact shots down the middle

 

Draw

 

You mean Brandun Lee.

I dont think Brandon Lee is in much condition to fight...

 

If Gonzalez pulls it off, he becomes a certified ATG. He arguably already was, but his massive setback against Sor Rungvisai damaged his reputation, fairly or unfairly. Coming all the way back from that kind of loss this late in the game would be absolutely legendary.

Betting on Estrada still, obviously, but rooting for Gonzalez.

 

I'm excited about this one. Not an expert on either fighter but if it's as good as the first one, happy days...

My prediction is a total guess as I haven't followed either fighter's career that closely although I'm aware of their reps. For history, I'd like Chocolatito to win.

Would you say this is the biggest junior bantam title fight since Tapia-Romero?

 

I would say the 1st Rungvisai-Estrada fight was as big as any. That was the first jr. bantam fight since Tapia-Romero that I remember being truly stoked about.

 

Tapia-Romero was a much bigger fight. It was a bad blood hometown match, the arena was jam packed, and it was covered by HBO so millions of eyes were watching.

Tonight's fight is on DAZN with zero people outside of us hardcores watching, and its received nowhere near the hype and promotion of Tapia-Romero. So its not as "big" a fight.

Having said that, Estrada-Choco is on a higher skill level considering Choco is much greater than Tapia and Estrada is much better than Romero.

 

The Question is How Much BETTER Has Juan Francisco Estrada Really Gotten Since the 1st Fight???...Bigger and More Experienced Since Then, But Truly BETTER???

Sure, Roman Gonzalez has REGRESSED, But the 1st Estrada Fight was a Couple Years PRIOR to the Very Best We Ever Saw Out of Chocolatito Anyways...You Could Argue Gonzalez's Punch Resistance Isn't the Same, But Sor Rungvisai's a HARDER Puncher than Estrada...

REED's Noted in Other Threads How Rungvisai-Estrada II was a Weird Ass Fight, One That Rungvisai LOST More Than Estrada WON, If That Makes Sense...Even Cuadras was a Bit OUT Of Character in his RE w/Estrada, Though it Payed Off In an Early Rounds Knockdown...

Replete w/Superior Speed of Hand and Foot, Estrada Still Couldn't Keep Chocolatito Off of Him, Ultimately...PRESSURE Won the 1st Fight...In That Way, it was Somewhat Reminiscent of Cotto-Margarito I, Minus the Blood/KO Of Course...Chocolatito Stalked Unceasingly, Like a Serial Killer...

Sooooo, If Estrada Can't HURT Gonzalez (Which he Couldn't @ 108), He'll Lose Again...

Given Chocolatito's AGE, We Should Learn EARLY if 115 IMPROVED Estrada's Punch or Not...What We DO Know is Chocolatito Can HURT Estrada to the Body, Which he Did in the 6th Round of the 1st Fight...

Good, High Volume Scrap Like the 1st...REED Wants Chocolatito to Win, But He Wasn't a Difficult Target for Estrada to Find Initially, Nor Will He Be Tonight...If He ABSORBS the Shots Similarly, Chocolatito Wins Another UD...

If Chocolatito Loses it's Via KO...






REED

 

Tapia - Romero was literally starting gang wars. I don't think you'll get a bigger 115lb fight than that.

 

Watching from his Living Room in Dallas, Knowing NATHAN About Albuquerque, REED Could Literally FEEL the Tension and Atmosphere from His TV Screen...

And 1 Thing Johnny Tapia EXCELLED @ Was Playing to the Crowd...Memorable Night of Boxing For Certain...




REED

 

Estrada a Step AHEAD of Chocolatito All Round...




REED

 

Takes the Ol' Man a Round and a Half, But he Starts FINDING Estrada Middle of the 2nd...




REED

 

Several Head Clashes Early Due to BOTH Leaning In Head 1st, Gloves High...




REED

 

Choco landing the cleaner shots now and blocking most of Estrada's.

 

Estrada Moving LESS Than 1st Fight, Handling Chocolatito's Pressure MUCH Better Also, After 3...




REED

 

The WAR Has Begun! Nice 4th Round...

Chocolatito Landed Some NICE Right Crosses...




REED

 

Chocolatito has too much class for Estrada

 

Chocolatito Can't Miss the Cross to the Head...Ramping Up That Serial Killer PRESSURE Also...

Estrada Landing, But Not Deterring...





REED

 

Chocolatito just a genius in there.

 

Action Packed 6th...Chocolatito Ate a LOT of Shots...

Estrada Looked FRESHER...




REED

 

Estrada Actually Got the BETTER of the Exchanges in the 7th, Yet Chocolatito ACCURATELY Returned Fire..

Good Round...




REED

 

Good round 7 for Estrada - landed some big right hands. But Gonzalez still coming forward and landing shots.

 

I thought gonzalez came back and won the 8th with some nice boxing and countering