Fight Breakdown: Diaz v Diaz

Being a boxing fan can frustrate the hell out of you. In the past, I’ve likened the experience to that of a battered woman in a bad relationship. When things are great, you’ve never been so happy. When things are bad, you’re the one who feels it most. Your friends, people like MMA mogul Dana White, are telling you to leave your partner, and even when the bad times outweigh the good you still think “I can’t be treated badly foreverâ€￾. So you curse everyone and wait till things turn around (and it always does, right?). For us battered boxing fans, things have turned around and hey; we’ve never been so happy.

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this is really a pick'em fight. i'm surprised by the overwhelming number of folks tabbing juan to win. i go back and forth, but in the end i'm going w/ julio on points.

 

:bears:

me too. Julio has always been underrated. i think Juan can win, and he might, but my pick is Julio. Julio's a big lightweight too - i think that will make a dfference.

 

My problem with Julio is that he just doesn't get the job done when stepping up to the top level.

Juan's resume isn't all that, but his best two performances came against the best two fighter's he's faced to date.

Julio's best performances came against borderline contenders.

He has better one-punch power, but not to where it's an equalizer in this fight. I'm not sure any of his other strengths will be a big factor in this fight, whereas I see Juan's strengths neutralizing Julio's game and exploiting his weaknesses.

I'm also shocked that predictions are lopsided in Juan's favor. Especially on this board - you'd figure a few would pick Julio purely out of spite :: ... I guess his domination of Freitas silenced a lot of his critics, whereas Julio still lacks that one performance where people can point to and say he's for real.

 

Indeed Jake, I would LOVE to pick Julio out of spite for stinging arse-hole, but the truth is Juan is most likely going to win.

I was a silenced critic from the Freitas fight.

 

Juan's resume is better, he sparred with Karl :warning:

 

you picked Freitas to beat Diaz? have you ever picked a fight correctly? you're just an idiot. ::

 

I would love to see the prediction thread, because I think most picked Freitas and by KO.

Juan is going to keep the heat on Julio until he crumbles. Julio just isn't good enough defensively or strong enough to keep Juan from coming forward.

What I am curious to see is if the IBF pulls some bullshit with Juan after the fight so they can strip him of the belt. Require him to fight Nate Campbell in 30 days, something on those terms. Fuck the IBF:flip:

 

So long as Nate's pending legal troubles don't get in the way (still no confirmation on whether or not they'll even stick), he should most likely wind up getting Juan next.

HBO is pushing for David Diaz-Michael Katsidis (for which I will gladly make yet another trip to Chicago). I'll snoop around this weekend to see if that one has any legs.

GLH seems to be trying to force Casamorebore-Pacquiao, on the strength of Pac and Roach suggesting he's struggling to make 130 and Casa signing with GPHM. Add to that, the fact that Pac is rumored to be waiting until mid-November before announcing plans for his next fight, and I have to believe that we're looking at a Casa-Pac PPV sometime next spring.

With that, the only mandatory left for Juan is Nate (Campbell is the WBO interim champ, but fighting David Diaz would eliminate that, whether he wins or loses). The winner of Casa-Pac and Diaz-Katsidis will most likely fight each other, since one would be the other's mandatory. The WBA is still without an interim champ, which frees up Juan having to fight their mandatory (since there isn't one).

 

No I picked Diaz by decision, look it up.

 

wow haha

 

Your Julio pick is going to look pretty dumb come Saturday.

 

Originally Posted by mexican wedding shirt
Indeed Jake, I would LOVE to pick Julio out of spite for stinging arse-hole, but the truth is Juan is most likely going to win.

The only reason I am seeing jibberish is because it is on a quote.
What do I have to do with Juan Diaz?

 

freitas was the lightweight version of jermain taylor. sloppy defense, overrated power but awkward enough to last and squeek by technically superior boxers. but then again, the version that diaz beat was a guy whose heart wasn't in the game anymore and pretty much came out of retirement for a payday and what he probably thought was an easy fight.

but still, i thought it was a very good win for baby diaz. other than freitas, what top level fighter has juan beaten? lakva sim?

 

Not that I would ever challenge The Jake, but isn't Katsidis the WBO interim champ? I thought David Diaz was the WBA champ and Casa was the WBA interim?:dunno: Fuck I don't know.... god damn abc belts and their bullshit ass multiple champions.

Watch Juan win, and because he'll hold 3 belts the WBA will call him their Super Champ. :doh:

 

Did anyone actually read the article? ::

 

I did. Yes. It predicts Juan Diaz will win by 10th round stoppage, and that Julio, while he might have some success, even possibly scoring a knock-down, will wither under Juan's pressure.

It also says that Julio's fight is from a distance, and that Juan will need to get close.

 

yes, typo on my part, I meant to say Katsidis.

David Diaz and Casa share versions of the WBC title, though I forget which is which. Casa was the champ and David the interim. They stripped Casa, gave Diaz the title, but have since reinstated Casa as A champ. I forget if David was bumped back down to interim, or if hes their champ and Casa is interim.

Ah whatever, it's a mess. Nate's a mandatory to the IBF and every other lightweight mentioned in this thread holds a lightweight belt of sorts.

 

Exactly... picking Freitas over Juan is idiotic but picking Julio is alright... ::

 

I read it, nice breakdown. the only thing I didn't care for was that you took four paragraphs to get to your subject, and that the first three really didn't have anything to do with the heart of the article. but the rest of the article made up for it, and you showed your audience that you know your stuff. so, well done.

 

Yeah, reading the intro again, it's a little too much dramatic effect and is still the remenants of my english degree poking its head in...internet journalism is a different animal and the general rule of thumb I've followed in the past, is just to eliminate the blabber and talk about the boxing.

Still, I did it while bed last night and took a couple of needles during the writing and didn't eat. I'm suprised it came out as well as it did in hindsight.

 

the breakdown itself was on point. you told it like it was, and allowed it to flow perfectly into your prediction and reasons for it.

 

Thanks Jake. Your kind words sooth the soul.

 

i sort of like the battered woman metaphor. i think it rings true. but it's a little bit dark. and somehow using it seems forgiving of that sort of behavior, although i'm sure that wasn't the author's intention.

 

I was wondering how that would go over. I've made the comparison when speaking with friends and on the boards, but never actually in a somewhat formal manor such as this.

You're right though, it certainly wasn't my intent to glorify or lessen the impact of what the women go through. It's simply an observation.

 

Yes and it was pretty good. :bears: I was wondering if you were the writer, I've got my answer now.

 

I enjoyed the article. It gets the job done withbout trying to be too technical, or too brief. Good job.

C

 

Nicely done. Very good breakdown and about as expected.

I liked the context & background at the beginning...a bit long, but comprehensive for those readers who don't follow as closely as we do.

As others have said, very dark analogy - but unfortunately, right on point.

Good stuff, brotha!

Peace.

 

REED LIKED the Dark Analogy


REED::

 

dsimon writes:

I did! :cheer: Nice job Tam. You covered all the key points. I would only add that Juan punches straighter. Its one of the reasons he got to Freitas imo. Julio loops a bit. To me that means that all things being equal Juan gets there first a good percentage of the time.