Fightbeat Predictions Championship 2011.

Who's bad enough to take the title? :crafty::fightme:



Full Year
I'm gonna keep this going for the full year,so get on board now! It'll take place on a quarterly basis to make it as easy as possible for people to participate. Please make as many picks for the quarter as you can now so we all know there are enough competitors to make it fun. But by all means amend your picks nearer the time as your opinions develop (and feel free to join in at any time). The first fight will be Bradley-Alexander.



Two Guesses.
The way I'm gonna do this is to give everyone two guesses at each fight. This is to help demonstrate that we've properly gauged the probabilities of the match up, even if your first guess struck slightly off the mark. To ameliorate the impact of lucky guesses & reward people who rightly gauge that a fight could go one of two ways, basically. Your first guess nets you full points if correct, your second guess nets you half points. So make pick A) the pick you're most confident in & pick B) the outcome you think is second most likely to occur. Both picks will net you points, so by all means make the same pick twice if you're very confident and that certainty will be rewarded.



Pick a specific round for KOs
For KOs please pick a specific round. You will get more or less points based on how close this guess is to the outcome, it won't be all or nothing.



UD or 'SD' *CHANGE*
For further decision picks, now either pick 'UD' for the guy you think will win or 'SD', please. The scoring criteria for these picks is at the bottom of post 2. 'Draw' picks aren't eligible right now because it just feels like too much of a long shot pick, but my right to change my mind again like a flustered hormonal woman is enshrined in section 2b) of the small print inside my mind. Our points will never be changed retrospectively though.

Sliding Scale
If you predict UD for one guy and he wins by SD, again, it won't be all or nothing. The exact scoring criteria is at the bottom of post 2, so as not to clutter this OP any further.

Sign up here if interested and I'll stick your name right here -

El Terrible (137)
REED (129)
Mexican Wedding Shirt (127.5)
Slice N Dice (121)
ILLUMINATI (119+)
shake_and_bake83 (115.5)
*Z* (110)
pagan (109.5)
Hut*Hut (105.5)
Jake (104.5)
Bob N weave (100.5)
salaco (94.5)
Arturo Gatti (91+)
Irish2002/03 (83.5)
Hitman (83.5)
barneyboy2001 (43.5+)

 

January 29
Devon Alexander vs. Timothy Bradley Jr. (WBC/WBO junior welterweight unification)


February 19
Fernando Montiel vs. Nonito Donaire (WBO/WBC bantamweight championship)

Felix Sturm vs. Ronald Hearns (WBA middleweight championship)

March 5th
Saul Alvarez vs. Matthew Hatton (WBC Light Middleweight Championship)

Zab Judah vs. Kaizer Mabuza

March 12
Sergio Martinez vs. Sergei Dzinziruk (middleweight)

Miguel Cotto vs. Ricardo Mayorga (WBA junior middleweight championship)

Miguel Vazquez vs. Leonardo Zappavigna (IBF lightweight championship)

Yuri Foreman vs. Pawel Wolak (junior middleweight)

March 19
Vitali Klitschko vs. Odlanier Solis (WBC heavyweight championship)

Lucian Bute vs. Brian Magee (IBF super middleweight championship)

Willie Casey vs Guilermo Rigondeaux (WBA super bantamweight championship)

March 26th

Yuriorkis Gamboa vs Jorge Solis (WBA & IBF featherweight Championships)

Steve Molitor vs. Takalani Ndlovu (IBF junior featherweight championship)




Scoring rules

UD picks

UD for your man = 10 points
TD for your man = 8 points
SD for your man = 7 points
Injury related retirement = 5 points
KO for your man in the final 3 rounds = 5 points
KO for your man in the first 9 = 4 points
Draw = 4 points
SD for other man = 2 points
UD for other man = 1 points
Injury related stoppage for other man = 1

SD picks

SD for your man = 10 points
Draw = 8 points
Split TD for your man = 8 points
SD for other man = 7 points
UD for your man = 7 points
Unanimous TD for your man = 6 points
Split TD for other man = 6 points
Injury related stoppage for your man = 3 points
Unanimous TD for other man = 3 points
KO for your man in last 3 = 3 points
KO for your man in first 9 = 2 points
TD for other man = 2 points
UD for other man = 2 points

KO picks

Bang on KO pick in first 6 = 13 points for
Bang on KO pick last 6 = 12 points
KO pick with 2 round leeway = 10 points (result = KO 8, then 6, 7, 9, 10 = 10 points)
KO pick with 3 round leeway = 9 points for
KO pick with 4 round leeway = 8 points
All other KOs = 7 points
Injury related stoppage for your man = 7 points
TD for your man = 5 points
UD for your man = 4 points
Injury related stoppage for other man = 2 points
Draw = 1 points
KO for other man = 1 points

 

January 29th
A. Bradley UD
B. Alexander Close Decision

February 19
A. Donaire KO7
B. Montiel Split Decision

A. Sturm UD
B. Sturm UD

March 5th
A. Alvarez KO9
B. Alvarez KO7

A. Judah SD
B. Judah UD

March 12
A. Sergei Dzinziruk UD
B. Draw

A. Cotto UD
B. Cotto KO10

A. Zappa SD
B. Vasquez TKO7

A. Foreman UD
B. Foreman UD

March 19
A. Klitschko KO10
B. Klitschko KO10

A. Bute KO8
B. Bute UD

A. Rigondeaux UD
B. Rigondeauz UD

March 26th

A. Gamboa KO7
B. Gamboa KO7

A. Molitor UD
B. Molitor UD

 

Good man! :mj: Yeah stick your predictions here.

Please make it one post for the quarter and if you wanna add or edit picks, edit the post.

Make things much easier for me.

 

My Initial picks

January 29
Devon Alexander vs. Timothy Bradley Jr. (WBC/WBO junior welterweight unification)

A) Bradley UD
B) Bradley KO 10.

February 19
Fernando Montiel vs. Nonito Donaire (WBO/WBC bantamweight championship)

A) Donaire KO 8
B) Donaire UD

Felix Sturm vs. Ronald Hearns (WBA middleweight championship)

A) Sturm UD
B) Sturm UD

March 5th
Saul Alvarez vs. Matthew Hatton (WBC Light Middleweight Championship)

A) Alvarez KO 7
B) Alvarez KO 10

Zab Judah vs. Kaizer Mabuza

A) Judah SD
B) Mabuza KO 10

March 12
Sergio Martinez vs. Sergei Dzinziruk (middleweight)

A) Martinez UD
B) Martinez UD


Miguel Cotto vs. Ricardo Mayorga (WBA junior middleweight championship)

A) Cotto KO 8
B) Cotto KO 8

Miguel Vazquez vs. Leonardo Zappavigna (IBF lightweight championship)

A) Vasquez UD
B) Vasquez UD

Yuri Foreman vs. Pawel Wolak (junior middleweight)

A) Foreman UD
B) Foreman UD

March 19
Vitali Klitschko vs. Odlanier Solis (WBC heavyweight championship)

A) Vitali UD
B) Vitali KO 10

Lucian Bute vs. Brian Magee (IBF super middleweight championship)

A) Bute UD 12
B) Bute UD 12

Willie Casey vs Guilermo Rigondeaux (WBA super bantamweight championship)

A) Rigondeaux UD 12
B) Rigondeux KO 6

March 26th

Yuriorkis Gamboa vs Jorge Solis (WBA & IBF featherweight Championships)

A) Gamboa KO 6
b) Gamboa KO 9

Steve Molitor vs. Takalani Ndlovu (IBF junior featherweight championship)

A) Molitor UD
B) Molitor SD

 

A) Bradley UD
B) Bradley UD

A) Donaire TKO 10
B) Donaire UD

A) Sturm UD
B) Sturm UD

A) Alvarez KO 9
B) Alvarez KO 10

A) Judah MD
B) Judah MD

A) Martinez UD
B) Martinez close decision

A) Cotto TKO 8
B) Cotto TKO 10

A) Vasquez UD
B) Vasquez UD

A) Foreman UD
B) Foreman UD

A) Vitali KO 10
B) Vitali KO 10

A) Bute TKO 10
B) Bute TKO 10

A) Rigondeaux KO 4
B) Rigondeaux KO 8

A) Gamboa UD
B) Gamboa UD

A) Moliter SD
B) Moliter SD

 

First Round fights - January through March.

January 29
Devon Alexander vs. Timothy Bradley Jr. (WBC/WBO junior welterweight unification)
A) Bradley UD
B) Bradley UD

February 19
Fernando Montiel vs. Nonito Donaire (WBO/WBC bantamweight championship)
A) Donaire UD
B) Donaire KO8

Felix Sturm vs. Ronald Hearns (WBA middleweight championship)
A) Sturm UD
B) Sturm KO10

March 5th
Saul Alvarez vs Matthew Hatton (Welterweight)
A) Alvarez UD
B) Alvarez TKO7

Zab Judah vs. Kaizer Mabuza (Junior Welterweight)
A) Judah Close decision
B) Mabuza TKO10

March 12
Sergio Martinez vs. Sergei Dzinziruk (middleweight)
A) Martinez UD
B) Martinez Close decision

Andy Lee vs. John Duddy (middleweight)
A) Fight won't happen
B) Fight won't happen

Miguel Cotto vs. Ricardo Mayorga (WBA junior middleweight championship)
A) Cotto KO8
B) Cotto KO10

Miguel Vazquez vs. Leonardo Zappavigna (IBF lightweight championship)
A) Vazquez UD
B) Vazquez UD

Yuri Foreman vs. Pawel Wolak (junior middleweight)
A) Foreman UD
B) Foreman UD

March 19
Vitali Klitschko vs. Odlanier Solis (WBC heavyweight championship)
A) Klitschko Close Decision
B) Klitschko UD

Lucian Bute vs. Brian Magee (IBF super middleweight championship)
A) Bute UD
B) Bute KO10

Steve Molitor vs. Takalani Ndlovu (IBF junior featherweight championship)
A) Molitor UD
B) Molitor TKO10

Willie Casey vs Guilermo Rigondeaux (WBA super bantamweight championship)
A) Rigondeaux TKO9
B) Rigondeaux UD

March 26

Yuriorkis Gamboa vs. Jorge "Mexi-McNulty" Solis (WBA featherweight championship)
A) Gamboa UD
B) Gamboa UD

 

Jake, add your Alvarez-Hatton pick (March 5th) when you get a mo. I went and forgot about it like a big shrieking spazz.

 

He's afraid of a real man like a little white pussy. Every time I get another pick right I hear him making woman gestures like "eeewwwuwww, eeewwwwuwww" :::fightme:

BOSS I see you lurking too. Get in aboot it & stand with the band like a true fightbeat man.

 

OK will do. Do you want me to edit my original post, or just as a separate entry?

 

Edit please.

 

Sign me up Hut. I'll do the Bradley fight for now and more as we go. Someone should go through and delete all posts that aren't official picks to clean the thread up. Might make it easier for you.

A) Bradley UD
B) Bradley UD

A) Donaire UD
B) Donaire KO 6

A) Sturm UD
B) Sturm UD

A) Alverez TKO 5
B) Alverez UD

A) Judah UD
B) Mubaza TKO 9

A) Martinez UD
B) Martinez UD

A)Cotto KO 4
B)Cotto KO 6

A) Vasquez UD
B) Vasquez UD

A) Foreman UD
B) Foreman UD

A) Vitali TKO 9
B) Vitali UD

A) Bute TKO 6
B) Bute UD

A) Rigondeaux UD
B) Rigondeaux UD

A) Gamboa TKO 7
B) Gamboa UD

A) Molitor UD
B) Molitor UD

 

Good call. If a mod can do that, I'd be appreciative & smiley.

 

Good luck to us!

I just can't see Alexander outworking Bradley or stopping him so that leave me one choice.

 

Hey i'm in

A) Bradley ud
B) Close decision

A) donaire ud
B) donaire ud

A) hearns ko 8
B) hearns ko 6

 

I'm in...

Close decision (Actually, I'm very confident that Bradley wins but I reckon he might suffer a KD or two en route)
Bradley UD

Donaire UD
Donaire UD

Sturm UD
Sturm KO10

MTF

 

Cool, count me in

a) Bradley UD
b) Close decision

 

Bradley UD
Bradley UD
--------------
Sturm UD
Sturm KO 10

Donaire UD
Montiel KO 8
--------------
Alvarez KO 8
Alvarez UD

Judah UD
Judah SD
--------------
Martinez UD
Martinez UD

Cotto KO10
Cotto UD

Vazquez UD
Zappavigna UD

Foreman UD
Foreman UD
--------------
Vitali KO7
Vitali KO11

Bute KO10
Bute UD

Rigondeaux KO7
Rigondeaux UD
--------------
Gamboa UD
Gamboa KO9

Molitor UD
Molitor KO11

 

Tim Bradley WTKO 11 Devon Alexander.

Tim Bradley W12 Devon Alexander.

 

A) Bradley UD
B) Close decision

 

Alexander UD
Alexander TKO 10

Feb 19
Donaire UD
Donaire TKO 9

Sturm UD
Sturm UD

 

:cheer:

Steve_Dave, if you get a minute, can you delete all the posts in this thread apart from the ones containing actual picks & the first two containing the rules, etc?

 

done

 

First Round fights

January 29
A)Timothy Bradley Jr. by UD
B) Timothy Bradley Jr. by KO 10

February 19
A)Nonito Donaire by KO 9
B)Nonito Donaire by UD


A)Felix Sturm by UD
B)Felix Sturm by KO 8

March 5th
A)Saul Alvarez by KO 8
B) Saul Alvarez by UD

1) Zab Judah by TKO 7
2) Zab Judah by TKO 10

March 12
1) Sergio Martinez by UD
2) Serhiy Dzinziruk by UD

1) Miguel Cotto by TKO 9
2) Miguel Cotto by TKO 6

1) Miguel Vasquez by UD
2) Leonardo Zappavigna by KO 9

1) Yuri Foreman by UD
2) Yuri Foreman by UD

March 19
1) Vitali Klitschko by KO 8
2) Vitaly Klitschko by KO 11

1) Lucian Bute by TKO 6
2) Lucian Bute by TKO 9

1) Steve Molitor by UD
2) Steve Molitor by TKO 9

1) Guilermo Rigondeaux by KO 2
2) Guillermo Rigondeaux by KO 5

 

:bears:

 

I'm in it to win it, baby.

 

:scared::scared::scared::scared::scared::scared:

My first pick is A) Bradley by unanimous decision.
My second pick is B) Bradley by CLOSE decision.

The other upcoming fights I will comment on in the coming days.

 

I think you should have to call what kind of decision and maybe get an extra point for doing so.

 

Yeah, fair call - I already have a wee change in mind along the lines you say, but I think it's too late for everyone who's picked 'close decision' to change their picks at this stage, so I reckon we should look at it after Bradley-Alexander and keep the points awarded as advertised for this one.

I do like the general structure of the scoring system, I think it'll work well. For future fights 'close decision' will probably be slightly differentiated in the scoring between SDs either way and draws, but not by too much. The scoring should still work on the same 'predict the dynamic & aim for ballpark' principles, IMO, rather than rewarding exact guesses disproportionately as if they were nostradamic. 10 points for getting it exact, 8 points for any other type of 'close decision', most likely.