Inferior fighter vs. supposedly shot fighter

I´m falling into this trap a lot lately, where I pick an inferior fighter simply based on the fact that an old "formerly" elite fighter looked poor in recent outings.

For example

Woods vs. Tarver
Katsidis vs. Casamayor
Diaz vs. Morales
Lacy vs. Calzaghe

Any others?

 

Prince Badi Ajamu - Roy Jones Jr.

 

Holy shit, you picked Lacy over Calzaghe? ::

I've been guilty of this only on saturday actually.

Usually I don't fall into this trap.

For example I picked Casamayor to beat Katsidis, and Jones over tito, despite Jones being almost completely shot etc.

BUT, I picked tarver over woods and dawson over glencoffe, purely because of the age of "Taver" and 'Coffe.

 

Hanshaw - Jones jr
Chavez-Jimenez

 

I fell for this one on Saturday, picking Woods over Tarver on the basis that Tarver looked near dead against Nard. :doh:

I'm more likely to fall for the 'picking guys you WANT to win' trap, though. I picked Katsidis to beat Casa simply because I love the way he fights. I picked Hatton to beat Floyd simply because I have always followed and rooted for Hatton, even though I confidently outlined all the reasons why Hatton would be countered to death. :doh:

I'm sure I'll continue to do similarly stupid things in the future... ::

 

With hindsight, Hamed - Barrera could be placed into this category: Inferior fighter thinking his opponent is shot after too many wars and being taken to SCHOOL. ::

 

I didn't pick Lacy because i figured Calzaghe was shot. I picked Lacy because i figured he was better. Boy was i wrong ::

 

julio gonzalez - dariusz m

 

Carlos Bojorquez-Pernell Whitaker

 

Tyson against Holyfield
Ray Mercer against Larry Holmes
Fernando Montiel against "Too Sharp" Johnson
Barrera against Jr. Jones
Tszyu against Vince Phillips

 

Why complain about this one? In this case, you were right.

 

Agreed.