Toney by clear UD. Joe would keep it competitive with his handspeed and workrate, but Toney would be countering inbetween his slap combos all night long with the much cleaner, harder shots. Also Toney at 168 had fast hands himself, and much higher workrate than he did at any other division. The fight would be competitve through 8, but after that I think James takes control and gives Joe a beating late. Calzaghe's chin appears to be top notch, so I give him the benefit of the doubt and say he'd last the distance, but Toney at his very best leaves no doubt as to whom the better fighter is.
I was thinking of this fight as well, but have instead talked myself into the scenario that has Joe outhustling and outworking Toney just enough to take a decision in a fight that will have fans evenly divided on who really won.
Yeah, you have to go with Joe simply because Toney was hit or miss regarding if he showed up in shape. It would have been a good scrap with Toney landing the harder blows, but in terms of sheer activity you'd have to go with Calslappy.
Of course, I assume we are considering a prime and in-shape/trained Toney....or esle this bogs down into how Toney "might" come into the ring and how "you have to pick against Toney b/c he's hit or miss". So given that....has anyone considered CHIN and the effect it has on this fight? I definitely think Toney's lightning-fast right-hand counters down the middle would stun/hurt Calzaghe....enough to keep him cautious; and likely net Toney a KD or two. It's not a question of pedigree - it's a question of styles and the physical match-up. Calzaghe does have some good parrying defense, and he can keep his chin tucked in....the problem here is his tendency to come in completely square and open himself up right down the middle to deliver his fast, powerful (albeit half-turned) flurries. And the way he drags his back foot doesn't allow him good mobility to evade Toney's counters. Calzaghe IS there to be hit...especially as he leans in and comes closer inside. Toney is not Lacey. Calzaghe would find Toney much harder to control by clinching/mauling and hitting and holding....and would be playing into Toney's hands often. Certainly Calzaghe OUTWORKS Toney -- at least early -- but doesn't OUTLAND him - not cleanly. Toney's well-timed straight right hands, left hooks to body and head and disruptive timing really hurt Calzaghe IMHO.... Toney by close UD. I don't think Calzaghe "outworks" Toney nearly as much over the last half of the fight as he gets more tentative and tired. I think Toney drops Joe early (by surprise; a flash KD) & late (accumulation) in a fight in which Calzaghe tries to vary tactics after being dropped and countered inside and tries to box from the outside - and THAT is where he has most of his success...Joe's quick hands and good 1-2 help him here. But I think Toney prevails at drawing him into his kind of fight. Additionally, Calzaghe doesn't have nearly the body attack here to make Toney really suffer. Toney, however, WILL nail that body. Toney by close UD. Peace.
One thing I think you and Jake are underrestimating is Toney's BODY PUNCHING. Toney in his prime was a very good body puncher, and Calz has never been punished to the body before. After 7-8 rounds of Toney's counters and body shots, Joe might not be as active.
