Welterweight for sure because I give Pac NO CHANCE against the lightweight Duran... Personally I think Manny has gotten better as he's moved up in weight. He's stronger, just as fast, more powerful, and takes punches better. Duran is a better fighter than Cotto for sure but I don think Manny can be very competitive here with his speed and angles. I like Duran by close decision in a really good fight that sees both guys take some big shots.
I am stunned if anybody gives a shot at Manny. The thing is, even if people do recognize that a modern guy is an all-time great, it takes years before most would pick them over the greats of the past. Seriously, I think this is a near-even fight. Duran is definitely much more difficult than Cotto but then again, after three and half rounds Pac dominated Cotto as he will, so Duran would need to be much better to be competitive. Much depends on how well Pacquiao would handle Duran's strength and inside tactics and that we don't know yet. He handled Cotto easily, but Duran is different. Could be that Pac could circle away from him but just as well Duran could rough him up. Outside it is Pacquiao's game: Duran slipped punches better than Cotto but he would still get hit much more than Pac in return. So, there is no evidence that Pac could take Duran's aggression but niether is there any evidence that he could not take it. So this is pretty much a coin-toss.
You know what - Duran's my favourite all time fighter, but at welterweight at least this is a very interesting fight. Pac's combination of speed, punch volume/fluidity and inexplicable angles would give Duran all he could handle. My money would still go on Duran but I wouldn't wager much