The safe pick is Brown outworking him and taking a decision but I'd have taken whatever odds were offered on Lopez winning by KO. Simon was good, but tends to get overrated, especially his chin. Getting the best available version of Lopez in the ring was always a lot easier said than done. But this being MM, I'll take that version to rally from behind and shock/drop/put out Brown with a bomb or two late in the fight.
I'd tend to agree. I could see the Lopez that beat Campas, and fought Ike stopping Simon late. Especially if Brown were to war with him. On the other hand, Brown would have hammered the Lopez that fought Page.