Forrest would be favored because of his advantage in skill. But I wouldn't bet on him confidently. If Lopez shows up in shape and elects to let his hands fly with any consistency, Vernon just doesn't have the chin to withstand that power. He just doesn't. I think Forrest would be up on the cards, and by the late rounds, Lopez grinds him down and puts him away with a well placed barrage.
Lopez would probably have Forrest on the verge of being KO'd several times, but let him off the hook and lose a decision. BUT, there's a legit possibility Lopez stops him late whilst behind on the cards.