Dunno. But either way it'd be close. I'm tempted to say Napoles by razor close decision, but Gavilan could easily take it himself.
For the little I have seen these two, I'd say the bout is as tight as a 12-year-old. Gavilan outhustles Napoles to capture a close decision perhaps?
And to answer the question, the bout may come down to who is able to lure the other into coming forward. If Napoles can get Gavilan to chase him (as Billy Graham did in their 1st title fight), then he may be able to beat him. But if Gavilan forces Napoles to come forward (like he did to Graham in their 2nd title fight), then Gavilan outjabs and outboxes him to a pretty clear decision IMO.
And you guys have the gall to say I "ride the fence?" :flip: :tease: :: My pick is Napoles by very close decision...precisely because of the point you raise above. I think in this contest of wills Napoles is able to make Gavilan come forward and be the 'aggressor.' Napoles was ever more patient at this than Gavilan; and Napoles had great instinct for when to pressure - and when to play counterpuncher. Gavilan would have the edge in height and reach -- but Napoles was a smooth as silk boxer with serious power (even at welterweight) and had such skill at measuring distance. So did Gavilan; but Napoles used it tactically better than the Kid did. Gavilan was quick, fluid and a great boxer....but could be outboxed since he often liked to trade and fight in fast, furious spurts. See the Graham and Hairston fights. Even when not being forced to, he liked to be an exciting, toe-to-toe fighter. And when that happened, he could play to his opponents strengths and be outpowered, like vs. Basilio...or timed and countered cleanly and get hit by more quality punches, like what would happen vs. Napoles (IMHO). Neither was ever KO'd at welterweight or below (Napoles' two stoppages were both due to cuts; and he avenged that stoppage to Backus). Gavilan was down only twice in his career, I think. Napoles' only true TKO loss was at middleweight vs. Monzon -- and even then he quit after the 7th (he was never off his feet). Napoles boxes Gavilan surprisingly well, forcing Kid Gavilan to trade and fight....where eventually Mantequilla imposes his superior power and countering boxing prowess to back up Gavilan and land the heavier, harder shots en route to a close decision. Peace.
