I think Pav beats the Hell outta the Ginger. Worse than Golov would, tbh. He's a NIGHTMARE matchup for Canelo.
I think Pavlik is just too big and too tall for Canelo. Canelo does seem to have a dependable chin however and is good defensively. As such he may only lose a decision.
Canelo's defense is INSANELY overrated. It's easy to look like a defensive wiz against looping sloths like Angulo and Liam Smith (and even Liam Smith hit him a good amount). Pavlik was a straight, accurate puncher. I don't see the Ginger being able to avoid his right hand for long.
Pavlik stops him late rounds. The height and reach plus the power would keep Ginger off balance and on the defensive. But eventually, he's gonna get hit with one too many and the ref will step in.
I think Shitnelo has his moments here and there and hits Pav with some good shots due to his handspeed. But once he hits Pav with his best and he still can't keep Pav off of him, he'd be totally fucked... it's not like he has the mobility of Sergio Martinez.