Fightbeat Predictions Championship 2011.

There hasn't been a big, split down the middle fight yet, to separate the men from the boys. Or a card full of 50/50s, that's when shit will get serious

 

I'll be ahead of you soon. I've been playing fairly safe up to now, but I think i'll step it up next picks.

 

Arrrgh. Just spent 25m updating the table then changed pages on the wrong browser tab and fucking deleted it. El T isn't top any more, I remember that much. I think Mex is now.

 

Good one. :laugh11:

I changed my Gamboa picks to KO7/KO4 in case you missed it. ;)

 

Gerd, Jurgen.... just don´t call me Miroslav next.

 

Table updated. REED & El T tie.

 

Wait a minute, I didn't use these. Can anyone confirm when the Gamboa fight started?

 

Right, time to step my shit up. You've been warned folks.

 

An hour later.

I know it looks like I´m cheating, but I´m just that good.

 

I think it was around 4am?

 

OK, cool, I'll change it now.

You're top. THE GERMANS ARE COMING! :scared: ::

 

Points deduction... ::

 

It's doubly confusing because A) Fightbeat's time was always an hour wrong for me, but I can't remember if it was fast or slow B) the clocks just changed here.

So really, Im just gonna take El T's word for it like I took Mex' a few weeks back, unless anyone has any objections.

 

::::

 

Just compare my time of the pick to the time Irish complains how shit the undercard fight between Remillard vs. Garcia is. ::

 

Nice job El, you deserve to be on top for now.

Hut, I can confirm that our filthy German friend changed those picks before the fight, as I was perusing the board at the time.

 

Guys Im actually tempted to cull quit1 a few from the second quarter schedule. Very few people have opinions strong enough on fights on the level of Molitor-Lovermore and Foreman-Wolak to make non-conventional picks. People don't really know about the fighters so they just pick the perceived most-likely outcome en mass. It's kinda pointless.

I mean big kudos to el-T who really set himself apart on the Molitor fight but, I think the league should be more about analysing fights rather than rewarding specialist knowledge of fights/fighters that few others are really interested in.

Marco Huck vs. Giacobbe Fragomeni (WBO cruiserweight championship)

Toshiaki Nishioka v Mauricio Munoz (WBC super-bantamweight)

Robert Stieglitz vs Dimitri Sartison (WBO Supermiddleweight title)

Joseph Agbeko vs. Abner Mares (IBF bantamweight championship)

Yonnhy Perez vs. Vic Darchinyan (bantamweight)

Humberto Soto vs. Urbano Antillon, rematch (WBC lightweight championship)

Sebastian Sylvester vs. Daniel Geale (IBF middleweight championship)

Jürgen Brähmer vs. Nathan Cleverly (WBO light heavyweight championship)

I'm tempted to cull allot of them, tbh.

Thoughts?

 

I tend to agree the best fights to do are fights with a non obvious outcome, but high level fighters.

With lower level/sub world class fighters, the results are often a bit random. I guess because those fighters are just not as consistent and good as the top dogs.

I don't know which fights should be culled out of those, but I'll be honest with you, there is one fight there where I haven't seen EITHER guy fight.

Huck and Fragomeni, I haven't seen either of them, so a fight like that would mainly be guess work, looking at a few clips on youtube etc.

 

I don't think the results are any more random, we just don't know enough about them to make informed predictions. There's an extent to which we should be using the league to learn about fighters but it should feel like a freakin' uni project, either.

I mean even fights where everyone is sure who's gonna win....if we know about the fighters well enough we can make nuanced guesses about exactly how they're gonna win. Cotto-Mayorga, Sturm-Hearns, Gamboa-Solis etc were good examples of that. Frankly I basically just picked the Molitor fight based on what happened last time, and I don't think that's what the league should be about....

 

It's probably partly due to less knowledge on certain fighters, but I still think the fights are a TAD more random anyway, than proper high level matchups.

But yeah, often there is a heavy favourite in a fight, and it's more about hedging your bets on HOW they're going to win, and going all in with your second pick etc.

I do think it's more fun by the way, having the straddle.

 

I can honestly say that picking Ndlovu/Molitor had little to do with a styles analysis or in depth knowledge of both fighters. Altitude and hometown advantage combined with the improved result from Ndlovu in their second fight, plus the Molitor results against Caballero and Booth made this decision for me. 80-90% was drawn from their records. I couldn´t pick Ndlovu out of a crowd if all other people were white.

Can you really say Jorge Solis, who fought Gamboa is more well known than a Brähmer, Cleverly, Sylvester, Soto, Perez, Agbeko or Huck?

I think all these fight should stay, cause otherwise you end up with one fight per week.


Huck is fighting Ran Nakash. Fragomeni pullled out.

If Mex says he has never seen Huck or Fragomeni that is shocking to me, but I can tell him that he should have picked Huck by stoppage mid to late rounds.

 

I've seen almost every other fighter on the list, but not Huck, not sure why, just never seen him fight. Know of him, obviously. I've literally never even heard of Fragomeni.

I think it's in large part to me paying more attention to the lighter weights. For example I've seen Nishioka, but not Huck.

 

Fragomeni fought Haye, tough. Went to war in excellent world title slugfests with Kraj, Wlodarczyk I and Erdei. Guy is an all action fighter, but now he´s washed up, so Huck wanted to add his name.

The replacement looks like a bum, despite his unbeaten record and that fight I would scratch, but the others should really stay, unless you want to start with DeGale and Groves.

 

I'm gonna go through the picks again for the first quarter and make sure everyones scores are right later.

Then Im gonna start a new thread for the second quarter tomorrow or tuesday. I want everyone to put all their picks in ONE post this time please, so as so as you see the thread up, please jump in and make a post, even if it just says *reserved for picks* or some shit and don't make any other posts in that thread until everyone else has done the same.

:Thumbs:

Sounds like I'll drop the huck fight if Fragomeni has dropped out.

Edit: though it looks like this nakash guy is unbeaten which makes things a little more interesting.

 

If you look at his record you´ll find out that the best opponent Nakash has beaten had a record of 28-8. Nakash stopped Vojnovic in seven rounds. Two fights earlier a fighter with a record of 1-5-1 stopped Vojnovic in one round.

 

Yeah but again.....unbeaten fighters are still interesting. An open book is interesting. Questions that have been resolved already aren't.

 

That said, this guy repeatedly loses rounds to journeymen. Consider this fight dropped.

 

That sounds pretty complicated.

 

I know, I realise it's allot to ask....::

 

I think ive given you guys a bigger enough lead now, so you better watch out!