FINAL PREDICTION: Shane MOSLEY vs. Miguel COTTO

Jake - agreed, no fucking way Winky hits harder than Cotto, despite being a natural 154 pounder. He simply doesn't hit hard. Cotto is a very solid puncher.

 

Wink is physically bigger and stronger, but the biggest difference with the two is that he doesn't commit to his punches with anywhere near the same passion as Cotto.

I also challenge his listing the 2006 version of Fernadold, but I suppose that's debatable. Winky (at least the version that fought Shane). No f'n way.

 

cotto might hit harder, but winky's a lot stronger.

 

I think that's already been established, but thanks anyway.

 

Miguel Cotto: 25
ILLUMINATI: Cotto by TKO 11
royyjonesjrp4pno1: Cotto by TKO 12
Hex-One: Cotto by TKO 11
slystaff: Cotto by TKO 11
mexican wedding shirt: Cotto by UD
TRUE BRIT: Cotto by Decision
Andrew: Cotto by UD
Roll With The Punches: Cotto by UD
Antwuan Maxx: Cotto by KO ??
Xplosive: Cotto by UD
adamiw: Cotto by SD
Double L: Cotto by UD
Octopus: Cotto by UD
ElTerriblee: Cotto by KO 10
Erratic: Cotto by UD
joony: Cotto by Decision
Mr Doog: Cotto by KO 7
D MAN: Cotto by KO 1
Jake: Cotto by TKO 10
dymipepel: Cotto by KO ??
TFK: Cotto by UD
Baron: Cotto by UD
TysonFan4Ever: Cotto by TKO 7
BigkneesEqualsslow: Cotto by Decision
Hut*Hut: Cotto by UD






Shane Mosley: 13
IronDanLaw: Mosley by SD
lb 4 lb: Mosley by KO 8
KaukipRrr: Mosley by KO ??
Ugotabe Kidding: Mosley by KO 10
Beyond the Grave: Mosley by TKO 10
TKO: Mosley by UD
Father of Muzse: Mosley by SD
Kaliber44: Mosley by KO 9
svenottke: Mosley by TKO 11
phonetap: Mosley by TKO 6
puerto rock: Mosley by KO 8
SRR: Mosley by UD
bigdawg: Mosley by UD

 

Mosley UD

 

Cotto is too basic to beat Mosley

 

Miguel Cotto: 25
ILLUMINATI: Cotto by TKO 11
royyjonesjrp4pno1: Cotto by TKO 12
Hex-One: Cotto by TKO 11
slystaff: Cotto by TKO 11
mexican wedding shirt: Cotto by UD
TRUE BRIT: Cotto by Decision
Andrew: Cotto by UD
Roll With The Punches: Cotto by UD
Antwuan Maxx: Cotto by KO ??
Xplosive: Cotto by UD
adamiw: Cotto by SD
Double L: Cotto by UD
Octopus: Cotto by UD
ElTerriblee: Cotto by KO 10
Erratic: Cotto by UD
joony: Cotto by Decision
Mr Doog: Cotto by KO 7
D MAN: Cotto by KO 1
Jake: Cotto by TKO 10
dymipepel: Cotto by KO ??
TFK: Cotto by UD
Baron: Cotto by UD
TysonFan4Ever: Cotto by TKO 7
BigkneesEqualsslow: Cotto by Decision
Hut*Hut: Cotto by UD






Shane Mosley: 14
IronDanLaw: Mosley by SD
lb 4 lb: Mosley by KO 8
KaukipRrr: Mosley by KO ??
Ugotabe Kidding: Mosley by KO 10
Beyond the Grave: Mosley by TKO 10
TKO: Mosley by UD
Father of Muzse: Mosley by SD
Kaliber44: Mosley by KO 9
svenottke: Mosley by TKO 11
phonetap: Mosley by TKO 6
puerto rock: Mosley by KO 8
SRR: Mosley by UD
bigdawg: Mosley by UD
whiskey: Mosley by UD

 

I think Cotto's underestimating Mosley BIG TIME.

 

It's the second time in the thread that you've said this.

So I guess I'll be the second person in the thread to ask you...

WHY do you think Cotto is underestimating Shane?

 

mosley TKO 9

 

I don't think he is. He's well aware of the threat that Mosley represents. But he knows that he HAS to step it up now and is confident that his career to date has prepared him for this challenge.

 

I was back and forth on this all week, i feel that Cotto will get a UD like 115-113 but i feel he will have one of those fights where you are like shit that was a close one.opcorn:

 

Possibly, but the way I see it, Shane HAS to hurt Cotto early...because the longer the fight goes the stronger Cotto will get in comparison with Shane and Shane wouldn't hurt Cotto late in the fight, and Shane wouldn't be on his toes boxing and as such he'll be getting outpunched on the inside.

When Cotto warms to the task he's an engine that doesn't stop applying the hurt. Not sure Shane can handle that in the last half of that fight.

Both men will be bloodied and/or bruised at the end of this one.

 

The one thing you fail to remember about Cotto is that he's not always aggressive. In fact, one of my main complaints about him is that he goes defensive in fights when there isn't a need to be. he'll do the same against Mosley and those breaks will give Shane the necessary breather he needs to sustain his attack and preserve himself down the stretch.

Based on the sparring video I saw for both guys, Cotto looks a hell of a lot more hittable than he should especially against guys who don't have the combinaed height, reach or power of Shane. I was actually surprised at how unimpressive Cotto looked.

 

Can you give me examples of that, because of the fights that I've seen of Cotto I haven't seen that tendency..not unless he's hurt....and even then he tends to come right back with aggression as soon as he's taken a few moments to recover.

 

dsimon writes;

Cotto reigns supreme. Both guys are one gear types.... Shane does his flurries and backs off, Cotto comes fowards with his body attack....Whoever designed the Cotto machine did a great job but forgot the reverse gear... but it won't matter for a while. It will matter again when Cotto faces a pure puncher, or a guy who has superior skills like Floyd, who can stand a little back and counterpunch before Cotto delivers his shot to completion.

The big question for Cotto is can he tighten up his defense? He has had ample opportunities to work with punchers now Torres, Judah and has shown a need to tighten up a bit. But it won't matter with Shane. Mosley is not the pure puncher that could be a problem for Cotto if he keeps getting hit. I don't know why people think Mosley is a puncher, but he is no more of a puncher really than Mayweather. Shane beats you on attrition and on throwing more shots.

Style wise Mosley was handmade to be sacrificed to Cotto... You can't just flurry on Cotto. Will he catch Miguel? He might. By the middle of the fight he will be trying to last. I don't know if he makes it. Shane has nothing to prove though.

Cotto by late stoppage, the 10th round perhaps.

 

Mosley by decision, maybe a MD or SD

 

I'm going to go with Cotto UD. This is a hard one to pick though.

 

dsimon writes:

This is an easy fight to pick IMO. Very easy. Cotto will never look good sparring. Guys picking Mosley are picking with their heart and not their head. Obviously I could be wrong and I have no problem apologizing to Metamuse and company if I am, but I would be very suprised if the fight is competative by the time the middle rounds are turning into the last 3rd of the fight.

 

dsimon writes:

You are wrong about Mosley. He is limited in a way Calzighe is not. The fight to look to is the Forrest fight. What is shows is that Shane does not make adjustments. Anyhow after this fight my stupid Mayirga pick will be matched by your Mosley pick and we will be even my friend.:: ::

 

Shane W12 Cotto, but I wouldn't be surprised if Shane sparks him right out in 8.

 

If you have any Cotto fights, I suggest you take another look. I'm not the only one who has observed this tendency of Cotto. It's something that was talked about tons during his earlier fights.

I like Cotto and I've said as much throughout his career. This fight feels a lot like the first Mosley-Vargas fight where it would have been difficult to see either guy lose. "However" after 'Nando and his wife made asses of themselves after the fight, I wasn't one bit bothered by 'Nando getting starched in the rematch.

 

Cotto looks in sparring the same way he looks in fights based on his style. Besides, if you're getting hit clean with 18 oz gloves and headgear, you're a big ass target.

The one thing about sparring is, you might not go all out as far as throwing punches, but your reflexes are either there or not. Meaning either you pull the trigger and pull the shot or you can't get it off. Either you see the shot and slip it or you get hit with it. It's not as important that you get hit, it's HOW you get hit.

That's why Cotto's been in trouble. When he gets hit, he gets hit clean and that gives guys chances they shouldn't get. I talked about this as far back as the Sosa fight. he knocked Sosa out and punished him, but if you watch that fight, Cotto got stunned/frozen at least two times that night.

I just think he's going to have his hands full if he doesn't make an effort to get into Mosley's chest earlier than most think. If he tries to box Shane, his shorter arms & shorter stature will cause him to get hit with more shots earlier than he should.

The big question is whether Mosley can pace himself down the stretch and not absorb too many bodyshots. Everyone talks about Cotto's bodypunching ability and completely forget that Shane is a damn good bodypuncher himself. It's not uncommon for good bodypunchers to not be able to handle a good one in return.

I still give Shane the slight edge in this one especially if he sticks a hard jab in Cotto's face early. If Shane does the wise thing and shoots a straight hard jab at Cotto early, I think Cotto's chances over the duration of the fight increasingly decreases. If there isn't a prevalent jab early, look for Cotto to come on later. Everything for Mosley works off a good jab and he has one but tends to not use it.

The point you made about Cotto coming back when hurt is a good one and is applicable to Shane as well. That's why this is such a good fight. Neither fighter has any bitch in him. If Shane made it out of round two against Forrest and took those two bodyshots in the 10th, he should be able to hang in with Cotto even if he's losing the fight down the stretch.

 

Earlier fights maybe, but its definitely not the case in his later fight imo.

 

Cotto by TKO in 10.

 

Tell me if I'm wrong but Mosely has NEVER been knocked out ?? So why are so many people suddenly thinking Cotto will do it ?

 

Spinks was never knocked out prior to facing Tyson, but the smart money was on Mike by KO going into that one.

It's about analyzing styles...not about whether someone has been KOed before...

 

Well here is the exact quote from Cotto

Its probably that Cotto may be underestimating Mosley based on his age.

 

Cotto is just showing confidence. There's nothing new in this. Shane has been doing the same type of thing in reverse.