FINAL PREDICTION: Shane MOSLEY vs. Miguel COTTO

Yeah, but Cotto does not have anywhere near the paralyzing power of a 1988 Mike Tyson. Tyson's power was in that upper echelon with Foreman and Shavers.

 

Well, Tyson/Spinks is not the only example of this. :doh:

Pavlik/Taylor for a quick example.

 

To my mind, this fight is the classic 'pick 'em' fight, and though my choice is Cotto UD, simply because I think his pressure body attacks are made to hurt a fighter with a style like Shane, I would be in no way surprised if Shane continues his excellent record against non-rangy, non 'reachy' fighters and wins a UD himself.

I would, though, be quite surprised to see a KO either way

Cotto UD then (just about) opcorn:

MTF

 

agREED.

If either guy got blown out it would be a huge surprise to everyone.

I don't have an issue with anyone picking Cotto, it's that good and close of a fight. No real bragging rights for either side, the only expectation is a great fight.

 

what is Kaliber's pick? I might have to change my prediction after I see who he thinks will win.

 

Miguel Cotto: 30
ILLUMINATI: Cotto by TKO 11
royyjonesjrp4pno1: Cotto by TKO 12
Hex-One: Cotto by TKO 11
slystaff: Cotto by TKO 11
mexican wedding shirt: Cotto by UD
TRUE BRIT: Cotto by Decision
Andrew: Cotto by UD
Roll With The Punches: Cotto by UD
Antwuan Maxx: Cotto by KO ??
Xplosive: Cotto by UD
adamiw: Cotto by SD
Double L: Cotto by UD
Octopus: Cotto by UD
ElTerriblee: Cotto by KO 10
Erratic: Cotto by UD
joony: Cotto by Decision
Mr Doog: Cotto by KO 7
D MAN: Cotto by KO 1
Jake: Cotto by TKO 10
dymipepel: Cotto by KO ??
TFK: Cotto by UD
Baron: Cotto by UD
TysonFan4Ever: Cotto by TKO 7
BigkneesEqualsslow: Cotto by Decision
Hut*Hut: Cotto by UD
LEGENDARY: Cotto by UD
dsimon3387: Cotto by KO 10
toomuchsol: Cotto by UD
ArturoGatti: Cotto by TKO 10
meetthefeebles: Cotto by UD

Shane Mosley: 17
IronDanLaw: Mosley by SD
lb 4 lb: Mosley by KO 8
KaukipRrr: Mosley by KO ??
Ugotabe Kidding: Mosley by KO 10
Beyond the Grave: Mosley by TKO 10
TKO: Mosley by UD
Father of Muzse: Mosley by SD
Kaliber44: Mosley by KO 9
svenottke: Mosley by TKO 11
phonetap: Mosley by TKO 6
puerto rock: Mosley by KO 8
SRR: Mosley by UD
bigdawg: Mosley by UD
whiskey: Mosley by UD
atomicdOGg34: Mosley by TKO 9
salaco: Mosley by Decision
Buddy Rydell: Mosley by Decision

 

Kaliber44: Mosley by KO 9

 

Just a heads up they will use 8 oz gloves. I think this favors Mosley. He has more 1 shot ko power.:doh:

 

You think Mosley hits harder than Cotto?

 

Yes but only 1 shot ko power! Cotto has more power inflicting damage.

 

So in other words you're saying that Cotto has the heavier hands but Mosley's one punch snap is superior to Cotto's?

Don't let the Vargas one punch KO fool you, Vargas was SHOT...Shane does not hit harder than Miguel Cotto, single shot or otherwise....

 

Shane's a sharper puncher than Cotto. Cotto has heavy hands.

Anyone who has ever sparred can tell what the difference is.

 

Thats just what I think, shit I hope your right. :bears: ::

 

Doesn't matter that Cotto hits harder though...Shane has a better chin. As such in the early rounds it'll be Cotto in danger far more than Shane. It's the latter half of the fight when the combination of Cotto's power, stamina and relentless offense would make things extremely uncomfortable for Mosley. But in the first six rounds...Cotto could be taken out!

 

:doh: Yup I have to agree...

 

well slie has never sparred in his life...::

 

Seems to me that there are two prevailing schools of thought for how Shane will win this fight: 1) he uses superior hand and foot speed, along with his ring experience and good stamina to beat the younger, slower Cotto... or 2) Shane sits down on his shots and digs to the body early, sapping Cotto's strength and allowing Shane to fullrry when he wants to down the stretch.

Seems like some form of those two thoughts is being presented by those who think Mosley will win. And asmuch as I want to pick Shane (as a Mosley fan), I don't think either one of those scenarios can or will play out.

I think if Mosley decides to invest in the body early and show Cotto that he is the stronger guy, it will play right into Cotto's hands. I also think if Shane wants to sit more up on his toes and box, he will miss scoring opportunities because he is not the same volume puncher that he was years ago.

Bottom line, while Mosley enjoys the superior handspeed and the better stamina and experience of the two, Cotto is actually the better combination puncher and could be the stronger man.

I don't think Shane has the kind of punching power that will get Cotto in trouble. That being the case, I see the most likely scenario bring that Shane gets out worked on the inside and does too much holding and not enough combination punching.

I don't think this will be a "style loss" for Shane, like the two fights with Forrest and Winky, but rather Shane will lose this fight because he will not effectively exploit his advantages.

I think Cotto will close the gap, and have just enough to discourage Mosley from doing the things he needs to do while in range. I think Shane will have his moments (as most of Cotto's opponents do), but Cotto will win more rounds.

Cotto by close decision.

 

this is the game sLIEstaff likes to play especially for shane mosley fights...he's hedging his bets. if shane stops cotto he'll say "I told you so" and if cotto wins he'll say "I predicted the fight correct". this is his way to avoid eating crow...

 

Cotto TKO Late

 

while looks can be decieving, mosley defintely looks to be in shape...a brutal asswhipping will be coming...::

 

dsimon writes:

I don't want to sound like "simple dsimon" :: but frankly Cotto's biggest problem getting hit is that when he isn't crouching his gloves are too far apart and a shot down the middle gets in there. he tends to square up, like a lot of guys do, when they are doing the worse thing they can be doing... which is following a guy in the ring instead of walking him down.

The simple part is that all this could seemingly be rectified easily... namely telling the guy to keep his gloves together and to not chase a boxer... or a puncher for that matter.

 

dsimon writes:

Well there is something to be said for the guy who has not been KO'ed before. I think Mosley gets stopped because a body attack is a different regarding a stoppage. Stinger's description of the effects of a good body attack (he was describing Calzighe's punches against Kessler) is applicable here: namely how those blows make you stop throwing punches.

Mosley is a tight muscled guy and when those muscles get beat on under the arms and around the upper ribcage.... ribroasters! He could be shut down and prevented from returning any meaningful fire.

I just don't see anything Mosley does to prevent a Cotto attack and I don't see him being evasive enough to avoid this attack when he can't flurry, so even without a single shot to the head I see him getting stopped cold.

 

You have to consider Cotto's body type when you're talking about him keeping his gloves together. A guy like Winky with long arms and a short upper torso, that works because his arms and elbows completely cover him up.

Cotto's a short guy, longer upper torso and wide shoulders and alligator arms...if he puts his gloves together as you've stated all he does is open himself up to body shots on the side.

Cotto's really only got one way to win this fight, come to Shane and wear him down. Shane's got more options, plus he's not the mental midget Judah is. Damn near everytime Judah let his hands go he hurt Cotto including in the later rounds after Cotto had established himself...Cotto STILL managed to get hurt.

Lastly, squaring up is a HUGE problem. That's part of the reason Mosley had no problems hitting Oscar in their first fight after Oscar stopped jabbing. Granted, Mosley's alot older now and Oscar is taller and has a longer reach than Cotto, but all of that leads me to believe that Shane's got more options than Cotto.

The closer Cotto is to Mosley the better. If he stays on the outside, he's going to get picked apart. Shane is taller and has a longer reach than Cotto. That's why I said his jab is going to be key.

 

dsimon writes:

Damn!!! Home boy looks cut for sure.

 

:eeeek: :bears:

36 they say? Fuck...

 

You're obsessed with me homie!

My official pick is Cotto, if SHane wins I eat crow.

"However"

There's NOTHING wrong in admitting that it's a very close fight to call and you wont be surprised either way. I've still offered a pick and so what are you complaining about?

 

I bet you have that picture up on your bedroom wall....

 

Is it just me or is that cassius green fella one annoying mother F$%#@!&!!!:doh:

 

DAMN YOU KALIBER44!!! :flip:

I am sticking with Cotto, though.

 

I'm taking Mosley TKO 7-9.

I just think its a favourable style matchup for Mosley. Mosley has a 2 inch height advantage and a staggering 7 inch reach advantage. I see Mosley landing his money punch (the overhand right) on Cotto at will and Cotto trys to get inside and wage his body attack. Cotto is going to have to walk through Mosley's lead right and combinations to land his money punch the left to the body.

Cotto is very easy to hit and his stance and the way he holds his gloves are eerily similar to the way Fernando Vargas does. I think Cotto's best chance is to outwork Mosley and wear him down late. One can point to Mosley's age but its a relative term in sports especially boxing.

Cotto's main advantages seem to be youth, strength, and power. I doubt that Cotto hits and harder than a welterweight De La Hoya, and I doubt he's physically stronger than Winky Wright or Fernando Vargas, in fact I don't think so at all. I would agree that at 36 Mosley's age is a question mark but given how he looked against Collazo when he simly outworked, outpunched Collazo, his nine years his juniour I just don't see it as a deciding issue.

As is any fight power is a relative term. Both have very good power. The interesing question is, who is more likely to by hurt by whom? Mosley has been down twice against Forrest other than that barely hurt. I've seen Cotto rocked and dropped numerous times. I don't think Cotto hits substantially harder if at all, than Forrest, De La Hoya or a 154 Vargas. Judah was able to rock Cotto numerous times, the only difference is that Mosley is substantially more accurate, throws more combinations and as recent fights have showed has a higher workrate than Zab.