FINAL PREDICTION: Shane MOSLEY vs. Miguel COTTO

btw..Edison Miranda's physique looked lightyears better than Kelly pavlik's.....

the rest is history.....

 

I'm getting it developed now. :eeeek: hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

 

dsimon writes:

Well Cotto needs to learn not to follow his opponent around the ring. If he does that could be a caveat that Mosley could indeed exploite.

Cotto is a croucher. it means that when he is stalking his head is in front of his body and his hands are in front of his head. His body isn't the problem it is his head which is only protected by his guard. La Motta was the same way. Like La Motta Cotto does not care about getting hit that is why Judah rocked him. But he needs to care because speed kills! With his head in front he could get tagged a lot.

Your point about Judah is true but Shane, while a fairly articulate guy outside the ring does not fight very smart at all. No angles, no footwork to speak of, simply flurry and try to catch the guy with speed and punch more than he does. Stylistically this kills Judah because Judah likes to fight like a thinking man... but does not do the work, does not attempt to understand the subtleties that a guy like Floyd studies intimately. It does not kill Shane because Shane fights pretty basically and depends on his speed to fix all problems.

 

Shane via TKO in the 8th


I dig Cotto and love his resolve, but I also think Shane has the speed and pop to hurt him early and not let him off the hook..

If I'm wrong, and this goes 12 rounds, it will easily be the fight of the year..

 

That's basically where i'm coming from. Plus Cotto has always been physically stronger than all of his opponents. Both Oscar and Vargas were bigger than Shane and couldn't just physically abuse him. Even when Miguel gets on the inside it's not like he's going to have a field day in there.

Add the speed and chin advantages, and i lean towards Mosley.

However i don't care about my prediction being correct, i'm rooting for Cotto. I like both guys but a win for Miguel is better for boxing.

 

Cotto by Majority Decision opcorn:

 

Agree with the body build/type posing problems.

However, disagree that Judah "hurt Cotto every time he opened up." Not at all - after the first round Cotto assimilated Judah's shots very well.

Even in the first when he was supposedly so "hurt", he calmly kept his balance and continued to throw punches and keep his guard up.

I never remotely saw him hurt like in other fights. Stunned? Sure.

Also - completely get what you're saying about Cotto going into "defensive spells" when he doesn't need to...but from what I've seen that's been occurring less and less at welterweight as his stamina has improved and he's dialed up his smart aggression.

Peace.

 

HGH! I'll Holla 5000

 

Mosley UD 12

 

I really, really HATE it when a fight pits two guys I like. :doh:

I try to pick objectively and not for the boxer I am a fan of or am rooting for - and usually that doesn't bother me much. But when I like both guys it always feels like I'm being unfaithful somehow.

I've rewatched Shane's fights with Vargas (2x) - but more importantly, with Cruz, Estrada and Collazo at Welterweight.

I've also watched Cotto's fights with Malignaggi, Quintana, Urkal and Judah.

This is how much pain this fight is causing me. ::

But I have to say, despite all of the "head logic" regarding Shane's speed and mobility and chin and 'crisper' punching, and my fandom, which make me nervous...I am going with my original instinct and picking Cotto by decision or late stoppage.

There are alot of things in Mosley's style that give Cotto way too many opportunities.

I just don't see Mosley being that active. He has a solid workrate, which declines and gets sloppier over the second half of the fight. He is often a 1- or 2-punch fighter for the most part and punches and clinches, especially in the later rounds. That means he'll be there to be hit to the body, and often. Both early and late - but especially late.

I think at welterweight and with keeping weight down between fights, Cotto's workrate, resistance and stamina have increased quite dramatically. He will keep the pressure on and he will steadily continue to throw round after round.

Mosley's also relatively flat-footed. Much is made about his footspeed, but the fact is he doesn't much use it. Shane has ALWAYS been offensively minded and his concern is being in position to unload his best offense - not "dance in and out". He does NOT dance like Mayweather, and most of his opponents have been able to find Mosley relatively easily at the elite level.

Similar to the Malignaggi, Quintana and Judah fights, I think people are going to be surprised by how quickly Cotto can pull the trigger on his jab and short punches (straight right, quick left hook) and catch Mosley flat-out at center ring. Mosley still fights with his chin in the air, especially when he's punching.

Shane also loves to move to his right...and that takes him right into Cotto's left hook to the body (and head). Shane can throw a straight right...but it's not his big shot. That happens when he loops his shots to head and body. I actually think Cotto's earmuff, tucked-in defense, crouch and shorter stance will work well against Mosley for this reason.

Shane can always catch and stun or rock Cotto early...matter of fact, I fully expect him to. And he will ALWAYS be a threat. But I just can't get over the feeling that Cotto can take what Mosley dishes out...Shane isn't quite as sharp a puncher as Judah and in his last 3 fights at welter, Mosley is concentrating more on landing and being fluid rather than sitting on his punches big...and they just don't seem as forceful.

I think over the second half it's increasingly Cotto...especially if Mosley gets frustrated, which has happened before.

And when is the last time Mosley has really committed to a jab? This is one of the things that has always frustrated me about him. He may stick one...but when he doubles up, he paws with it. You can even see it in the sparring videos.

I fully expect both men to always be in it and it will be a competitive, action-packed fight. I expect Cotto to be rocked, I expect Shane to be stunned. Both guys will counter, both will lead, the drama and momentum will flow back and forth.

Shane's big weapons? His speed...his right hand and his own body attack. These will bother Cotto throughout the fight and Miguel will look out of range early.

But at the end of the day, I take Cotto to prevail by decision or a very late stoppage.

Peace.

 

Miguel Cotto: 34
ILLUMINATI: Cotto by TKO 11
royyjonesjrp4pno1: Cotto by TKO 12
Hex-One: Cotto by TKO 11
slystaff: Cotto by TKO 11
mexican wedding shirt: Cotto by UD
TRUE BRIT: Cotto by Decision
Andrew: Cotto by UD
Roll With The Punches: Cotto by UD
Antwuan Maxx: Cotto by KO ??
Xplosive: Cotto by UD
adamiw: Cotto by SD
Double L: Cotto by UD
Octopus: Cotto by UD
ElTerriblee: Cotto by KO 10
Erratic: Cotto by UD
joony: Cotto by Decision
Mr Doog: Cotto by KO 7
D MAN: Cotto by KO 1
Jake: Cotto by TKO 10
dymipepel: Cotto by KO ??
TFK: Cotto by UD
Baron: Cotto by UD
TysonFan4Ever: Cotto by TKO 7
BigkneesEqualsslow: Cotto by Decision
Hut*Hut: Cotto by UD
LEGENDARY: Cotto by UD
dsimon3387: Cotto by KO 10
toomuchsol: Cotto by UD
ArturoGatti: Cotto by TKO 10
meetthefeebles: Cotto by UD
az cat: Cotto by Close Decision
Eaner v2.0: Cotto by TKO ??
Matchup_Analyzer: Cotto by MD
Donnybrook: Cotto by Decision






Shane Mosley: 20
IronDanLaw: Mosley by SD
lb 4 lb: Mosley by KO 8
KaukipRrr: Mosley by KO ??
Ugotabe Kidding: Mosley by KO 10
Beyond the Grave: Mosley by TKO 10
TKO: Mosley by UD
Father of Muzse: Mosley by SD
Kaliber44: Mosley by KO 9
svenottke: Mosley by TKO 11
phonetap: Mosley by TKO 6
puerto rock: Mosley by KO 8
SRR: Mosley by UD
bigdawg: Mosley by UD
whiskey: Mosley by UD
atomicdOGg34: Mosley by TKO 9
salaco: Mosley by Decision
Buddy Rydell: Mosley by Decision
Breeze: Mosley by TKO 7-9
Trplsec: Mosley by TKO 8
kevincarter: Mosley by UD

 

When has Mosley ever lost to a guy who fights like Cotto?? Then again, how does Cotto fight??

I like Cotto as a fighter, far more than I ever liked Shane. I think his fitness, freshness, pereseverance and more-than-adequate jaw and punch will pull him through. He mixes it well to the head and body, can take a shot and won't be fazed by Shanes speed {Authority: Judah}

Vargas was shot, and so far as that comparison goes, it goes out the window. Vargas hasn't been right since Tito.

I'm not sold on Shanes mental tuffness either. I think he folded vs Forrest when he lost the title. All that glove touching and shit.:doh:

The only thing that gets to me is that Shane has never quite blown it vs someone like Cotto. He has always lost to bigger smarter more boxing-orientated men, like Forrest and Winky and, ahem, Oscar.

Cotto for me anyways, decision win.

 

That was a damn good breakdown. I agree that Shane doesn't use his footspeed. I also won't be surprised to see him clinch alot to get rests and stop Cotto from getting off.

 

classic sLIEstaff...oversimplification in it's purest forum. :doh:

 

ahhh...donnybrook...the analytical yang to sLIEstaff's yin. :laughing:

 

Will there ever be a fight in which someone picks against Mosley that you don't accuse them of bias or being a "closet hater?"

Truly, it gets old.

I picked Mosley over DLH in the first fight (I was in the distinct minority), in the rematch, picked him over Forrest once, over Vargas twice, and over Wright twice.

:dunno: So what does that make me?

If I picked Cotto in this fight - but then went on to list all the reasons why Shane SHOULD win - you'd then accuse me of "riding the fence."

There is no winning with you, or those like you.

I haven't written a long breakdown like that in years, I think. It's been a while. ::

Believe me, I will be happy with either man winning...and disappointed/heartbroken for the loser.

Peace.

 

first of all, you're dead wrong so shut up...::...and second your yang to slystaffs yin had nothing to do with you picking mosley. as much as phonetap chastises slystaff for oversimplification he has teased you about overanalyzing...geez donny when did you become so sensitive...:laughing:

 

Wouldn't YOU get oversensitive if you were lumped in the same sentence with Sly?

I mean, Sly's a bro from way back, but regarding Mosley....well, that was worrisome.

::

 

a little curious here. How many of you picked Mosley solely because I picked him? 5-0 baby!

 

'the hell's that supposed to mean eh? :doh:

I'm very objective concerning Sugar Shane!

Phonetap's still mad because I have been proven right over time regarding Shane being a "Speedy Slick Slugger". ::

 

you forgot to add Irish98 to the Shane section (he's picking him by decision). Among others, Irish98, atomicdOGg34, and apparently phonetap, are posters you can add by default anytime Shane is fighting.::

 

i see what you did there, ill play ur game u rogue

 

Yes, indeed! ::

 

but do you deny it? I mean damn, you don't even post anymore unless a Shane fight is coming up ::

 

im busy with school, plus i dont have internet at my house, im just sitting here at a comp in the writing center waiting for kids to come in so i can tutor their asses

when the mets get arod ill post on that :tease:

 

I would also like to add, I think this is only the 2nd fight I've picked Mosley to be beaten.

I had a feeling he might lose to forrest the 1st time but picked him, and I THINK I may have picked forrest in the rematch but really can't remember.

I picked him over Vargas and Wright and Oscar.

So it may even be the only time I've picked against Mosley.

 

The only times I've picked someone over Mosley is the first DLH fight and the second Wright fight. Even here, I'm picking Cotto nervously... This fight is really a toss up IMO, under these circumstances I always pick the fighter I prefer.

 

Worry not, Cotto-lovers. Kauki picked Mosley, and that pretty much guarantues Mosley's defeat in a most disgraceful manner imaginable.

 

:: :laughing:

 

The best part about Shane planting his feet is that he'll be in position to catch Cotto when he comes in. It's no different than how Mayweather will catch Hatton when he comes in on him.

The difference is that Cotto doesn't come in at angles like Hatton and Mosley isn't as quick as Mayweather.

Shane should put enough on Cotto early to make Cotto think twice about pressing him. as the fight wears on.