Id go with pavlik. Think tjat at his best he was a little bit better than Kess, and mikkel doesn't have the movement to trouble him
I think you undersell prime Kessler. Kessler was slow and robotic compared to Calz and Ward, and it showed. But he was still a lot quicker and more fluid than Pavlik - of both hand and foot. On top of being the bigger man and better technician. That really only leaves Kelly with a puncher's chance, which seems slim because Kessler had a solid chin.
Kelly also has an abysmal defence, so it's likely he's the one who gets stopped rather than the other way around.
It's surprising to me that JOM is so low on Kessler, and so high on Froch, when Kess owns a legitimate win over Froch. That would lead me to believe he would favor Kessler over Pav big time. BTW - I doubt either gets stopped. Kelly was a tough guy. But I think Kessler wins relatively wide - like 9-3ish.
Im not low on kessler. He was an excellent fighter and his jab and euro technique were terrific. But it seems to me this would turn into a war, and i think it favours pavlik. I think most tend to undersell kelly. Looked like a real killer before alcoholism and bhop turned his career and life for the worse.
Kelly doesn't get undersold. I think 07 Pavlik would have an excellent chance of beating both Canelo and Golovkin, though I'm sure many would disagree with that.