Pavlik vs Hopkins Oct. 18

Yeah, this is a fight where he may be in serious trouble late. Pavlik's gonna be coming forward all night and Hops doesn't have the stamina or workrate he once had. It could get ugly in the latter rounds.

On the flip side, I could see Hops knocking Pavlik the fukk out with one punch. And I'm sure he'll be training to land some perfectly placed counter rights. If he can catch Pavlik coming in with a hard shot, look out.

 

:bears:

 

Hopkins' overhand right looks like the perfect punch against Pavlik, but whetehr or not he drops him, when is the last time Hopkins has been able to put anyone away?

 

He dropped Calzaghe pretty hard and that guy's chin is rock solid. I think he can do it to Pavlik and put him away but its not likely.

 

he landed a perfectly timed overhand right vs. robert allen in their 3rd fight, but failed to finish him.

i doubt hopkins stops pavlik. i'd have to go w/ pavlik via decision here.

 

Old man Hopkins has no chance in this fight! None! The guy throws one shot at a time, and then grapples, thats not gonna be enough to beat Pavlik. RJ has much more of a chance at beating Calz, then Hopkins has of beating Kelly.

 

It would be huge if Pavlik were to stop him.

 

what's up w/ this catchweight bullshit? just do it at 168 or 175.

 

I don't agree with this at all.

Calzaghe is a fighter who spent his major career at a weight higher than Hopkins OR Pavlik, punches at a high rate and is heavy handed (that's why he can get away with that "slapping" style of punching)...AND HE WAS PUT ON HIS ASS. There is no way you can tell me that a man who got rocked by Taylor at 160 is automatically going to bring the exact same power and workrate but miraculously not be open to the one thing that Hopkins continues to throw well, and say Hopkins has little chance.

I'm picking Pavlik, but this is a close fight, no doubt. If the decision comes down to who landed the cleaner punches, and the judges look at Pavlik's face after 12 rounds with Bernard...

It's not that he throws one punch and grapples. He literally leaps to create space, gets defensive as hell, throws his one good punch, follows with his shoulder, follows with his head, grapples, throws a kidney punch, throws a low blow (all on the opposite side of the ref), ref calls for break, and it repeats. I think Pavlik is tough enough to handle it, and get even enough (just like Calzaghe) that Bernard won't have the reserve tank like he usually does.

 

Bad match up for Bernard. The perfect remedy for a punch and clutch guy like Hopkins is a stiff jab and a persistent work rate. Those just happen to be Kelly's biggest assets.

On top of that, Pavlik has draining punching power. His shots don't look flashy or particularly hard, but they are heavy and take their toll. This is probably the first guy since Taylor that Hopkins has faced with the power to actually hurt him.

If Hopkins was tired and looking for a way out against Calzaghe, against Pavlik he might actually quit.

 

I agree. For some reason people seem to be very forgiving to bernard in that fight (despite the fact that he has quite a few haters) - but he ABSOLUTELY wanted to quit, and was looking to get Joe DQ'd. He wasn't looking for a point taken off there, he wanted to bitch out and was gunning for a full on DQ win.

I used to be a hopkins fan, but that fight really put me off him, the bitching out for 1, and the fact that after the fight he just seemed like a real cock, and didn't give Calzaghe 1 ounce of credit.

 

Hopkins may lose, but I don't think it will be before he makes Pavlik's defense and footspeed look worse than they've ever looked in his career...and I very much question how Pavlik will look at 170.

 

I think you are seriously discounting 2 things:

1) Pavlik can control range with his jab and keep Hopkins from punching and then falling into repeated clinches.

2) Hopkins will be a couple of months away from being 44 when this fight comes off. Age, believe it or not, is starting to catch-up with Bernard.

Hopkins will have some moments early, but Pavlik will just overwhelm him as the fight progresses.

 

I hate to side with what seems to be the majority, but I just can't stand Hopkins anymore. What's worse is after his fights I will occasionally run into people who try and lecture ME about how you have to be a true boxing fan to appreciate Hopkins style. ITS CALLED DEFENSE, HIT AND NOT BE HIT - they say. I know what I am watching, and I hate it. It would be appreciated if he mixed in more than 3 punches per round with all his defense.

Watching Hopkins fight is like watching the movie "Jabberwocky." And for those who have seen that movie, my condolences - and I am sure you concur

 

Kelly's jab, power, REACH, and workrate will quickly discourage Hopkins from leaping in with anything. I expect B-Hop to go into stictly survival mode after about 3 rounds. If he actually fights Kelly like a man, instead of fighting like a bitch like he's been doing the last 4 years, then he'll get stopped for the first time.

 

If Pavlik were to drop Nard 8 times i wonder if he'd still complain about the decision.

 

I fucken hate Hopkins worse than any fighter who ever lived, I pray for further damage to his brain, whats Pavlik doing meddling in Jermaine's scraps anyway, a 3rd fight is obviously better than this?..:cheer:

 

What reach advantage? From what I've checked from their stats, they both have "75 reaches. We have yet to see his power at that weight, and does he really hit any harder than Tarver at 175? or even significantly harder than Echols at 160? Doubtful. When was the last time wev'e seen Hopkins hurt? I don't think Pavlik has the power to hurt Hopkin's at all. In fact, In fact I'll be very surprised if Pavlik manages to connect and hit Hopkins consistently. Considering the fact that Pavlik' is often wide open (he gets hit quite a lot) for counters it will most likely be the opposite.


Maybe I need to see Pavliks' last fight against Taylor because he doesn't strke me as a guy with an extremely highworkrate. He likes to measure range and throw accordingly, and Pavlik has pedestrian handspeed and slow footspeed. Even at Hopkins advanced age, he significantly lowered Calzaghe's punch output.

 

At 170, I think Hopkins has a chance, honestly. He'll be able to hurt Pavlik I think. What will be a problem is Kelly's consistent punch rate and late rounds stamina. Hopkins will need every bit of experience and old school tricks of his to win this one thats for sure.

 

I'm not sure of your definition of high workrate. But in his last four fights, Pavlik averaged 90 punches per round against Miranda, 80 v. Taylor (1st fight) 70 in the Taylor rematch, and 85 per round in his brief encounter w/ Lockett. I forget the totals for the Zertuche fight, but recall it being somewhere around 80 per round.

I'm just surprised that anyone would question that of Pavlik - rate of activity and punching power are his two biggest traits.

 

does anyone have a list of the average punches that get thrown per round for weight classes? Lampley will throw out those figures randomly and i usually try and i never remember to write them down

 

Thanks for the posting the numbers. I stand corrected on Pavliks' workrate. Also, I wasnt questioning his punching power however. I think Pavlik is a good puncher, I just dont think he will hurt Hopkins, considering Hopkin's track record.

 

Agreed.

 

Oh I agree on the power part. I was just earlier noting Pavlik's two biggest strengths, not that you questioned his power along with his workrate. But yeah, I'm not exactly optimistic that he stops Hopkins or that the fight is even watchable.

 

So I guess this will shut up the people who were already harping on Pavlik's level of comp that he hadn't even faced yet.

Is he picking on small guys now? :nono:

 

this is a bad fight for Pav..

Hopkins is hard to fight.. and if Pav wins.. So what? he's old..

unless Pav stops him.. this is a lose-lose

 

No, now he's picking on the elderly.:nono:ld:

 

There is not a guy in the MW division I'd pick over Hopkins right now besides Pavlik.

 

I'm pretty hyped about this fight right here. I see a good one.

Pavlik is the rightful favorite because of his youth and power, but I think Hopkins will pull off the upset here with his defense and counter punching skills. He'll be able to hit Pavlik often and Pavlik will have alot of trouble finding him.

 

yeah because jops goes out on his back all the time, he hasnt declined that much, he still knows how to stink it out and stay safe