Valdosta's bet thread...

since I am bored I will mention a couple of upcoming bets. Both fights are pretty close to 50/50 IMO so the odds are good. First I took JMM over Pacquiao at +165. I will add more to it if I can get better odds when it gets closer. hell I will probably add more to it anyways. I think JMM can win enough rounds to win a dec. Pacquiao hasn't looked as hungry IMO lately. This fight is a bigger deal for JMM than Pacquiao, plus he is more skilled (although less talented). My other bet is Hopkins over Calzaghe. I actually messed up and jumped the gun. I took Hopkins at +235 which is better than current numbers but unbelievably when the fight opened the odds went up to +275 or so before falling back down. Still can't believe people laid those odds on Calzaghe. I'll probably bet something else on Wednesday or Thursday when the lines for this week come out. if anyone else bets they can post what they bet to

 

I'm surprised on your bet for JMM/Pacquiao. I thought you were expecting Pacquiao KO 1 ::

 

That's a good bet.

 

Shouldn't be a surprise I bet against him all the time because of inflated lines. My record on Pacquiao fights aren't all that great let me look at his record and see....

Had the Pac-Lucero under that was a good bet (don't remember the amount to be honest)

Had Pac over MAB by KO in the first fight that was a great bet (300 to win 3600)

bet JMM against Pac the first time, lucky to get away with a draw (a 4k bet)

Bet Morales over Pacquiao in the first fight (won 4k)

Bet Morales over Pacquiao in the rematch (lost 10k)

Bet Morales in the 3rd fight (lost 3500)

Bet on Solis over Pacquiao (lost 500), that was just because of odds.

 

I'm a real pacman fan, and I know you are too Val, but I've been saying for a while he is soon to be done as a top fighter.

You're right, he has no hunger left. This is a more skilled and rounded, but overall less effective Pacquiao than the one that demolished Ledwaba and Barrera.

He was at his best when he was a hungry, snarling whirlwind like beast.

I don't think he really wants to fight anymore.

I still think he'll win a close decision over Marquez though, but Marquez is not a bad bet, he has a good chance to win.

 

I won't play around with you clowns - i will wait til Attraction posts his tips... :laughing:

 

Good thread Val :clap:

Another potentially tasty bet I've mentioned elsewhere is that Enzo Macarinelli is 6/4 in a lot of places to beat David Haye next week.

Although I expect Haye to win, it's a real 'he who lands first, wins', 50/50 coin-flip sort of match-up, so those 6/4 (you get 6 back for a stake of 4, plus your original stake- sorry, I don't do US) odds on Mac are a pretty good bet and are tempting me more and more each passing day...

 

I will be lumping on Marquez myself.

 

I won't be 'lumping' on, but I will almost certainly have a small wager. I LOVE Manny ac, but he is starting to show signs of decline in that he doesn't seem to have that burning hunger that made him so fearsome anymore.

Those odds are good odds in the circumstances...

 

The odds for this week suck, nothing to appealing. I like haye over mac BTW. 2 chinny guys but Haye is much more talented.

 

.....

Actually the only tempting odds on boxing IMO are the Bute-Joppy over. It's 8.5 rounds at -110. Joppy is a pretty good survivor and wasn't afraid to run like hell from Taylor. Bute wins for sure but it should go later IMO.

 

you think it's better than 9.5 rounds @ +170 ?

 

I think it's a good bet. 1 more round but the extra + makes it more than worth it. That's a pretty big difference in price for 1 round.

 

yep think so too - just wanted to hear your take on it ;)


I even found +170 for over 9.0 ... not for american bettors though...

What about points win BUTE for +275?

 

If 1 round is worth about 80 cents from 8.5 to 9.5 from -105 0r -110 to +170 I think that's a better deal than Bute by dec at +275.

 

Oh, I agree, but the odds for Mac, at 6/4, are good for what is a pretty close 50/50 fight (who lands first probably wins)...

 

valdosta thinks since Haye is much more talented, it's not a 50:50 thing of who lands first...

and btw haye overcame a KD and heavy pressure against Mormeck why shouldn't he survive the first punches Mac has to offer... :dunno:

 

If anyone wants a little action in the next few hours. I think Melbourne Storm are huge value against Leeds Rhinos in the World Club Challange. This is Football > Rugby League. Melbourne to win at +233 is very good value.

 

I slept all day, how did this turn out?

 

Not good. Andrew owes me a trip to Australia and a beer. :laughing:

 

He slept through it too ::

 

You're lucky I just got in from the pub...WAR RHINO'S!!!

 

Oh, believe me, I have money and sig bet's in favour of David. and I'll take whatever else people want to offer if it's reasonable...

But I still think the price is good for Enzo. I don't automatically back who SHOULD win- I always look for value bets. And I offered that one as an example to the forum.

What's the beef? :dunno:

 

I won a small bet there. Did it go over 9.5 or under? none of my books had that option thankfully.

 

wasn't worth the extra 80 cents THIS time. I didn't bet anything... stupid should have taken the over 9.0 at +170 at bwin... hesitated too long on this one.

put something on over for the telefutura main event... :bears:

 

Did that come across like beef to you??? I'm sorry then. Just wanted to say some guys doesn't necessarily weigh this fight as a 50:50 affair but that opinion isn't any better than yours.

Oh and i didn't mean to call your gf a bitch that other day... well not in a bad way at least. can be a great bitch can she not? :cheer: :bears: :wink:

 

[SIZE=-1]Valdosta have you had a bet on the vasquez marquez fight? I have taken Vasquez at 1.7. I think he is much much better than Marquez
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Better maybee but not much much better. He beat Israels ass the first time and was competitive in the 2nd fight.

 

in my opinion hw was not that competitive in the second fight. he knew vasquez had his number