WHAT's Gonna Happen WHEN (Not If, but wHEN) Cotto HITS Manny???...

I think Pacquiao's chin is solid enough to take a Cotto punch. That said, I am not sure if Pacquiao's midsection is strong enough to absorb a constant attack from Cotto's punches. I think this fight will go the distance with Cottlo bleeding profusely from reopen old wounds and Pacquiao's face will be almost disfigured while trying to protect his very hurt body. Cotto wins via majority decision, even though there is a chance of a bullshit decision in favor of Pacquiao. Cotto REALLY needs to look dominant in order to get a decision.

 

Cotto aint lasting the distance, he looked like absolute shite against Clottey who isn't exactly a volume puncher. Manny will land early and often, and the right hook will play a major role in this fight.

 

Cotto is not a one-punch KO artist. He hits hard, but it is accumulation that usually breaks down his opponents. Manny is reasonably good at seeing punches coming and moving or slipping a bit to soften impact. Nevertheless, he does still fairly often get hit flush, but his chin is good enough that he is usually able to withstand those punches and continue.

Tacticians like JMM get through to Pac and can hurt him. Erik Morales did as well. Cotto is not as good as JMM in that category, but he is very, very good in his own right. He mixes up punches well, throws with good balance, is very accurate, and often is able to time his opponent well. Also, due to the size and reach advantage, Cotto will likely be able to hit Manny when he is far enough out to be in less jeopardy of getting hit in return.

This all leads me to believe that Cotto will indeed hit Pac frequently enough to hurt him. It will not be a one punch KO, but it will not take as much time to wear down Pac as it would a true welterwieght. Mixed body and head shots will hurt Pac, and will slow him down, and thus will change his gameplan if he doesn't want to get KO'd. IMO Cotto's ability to hurt Pac will be a crucial aspect to the fight.

You cannot fight like Manny has been fighting recently against someone who can hurt you badly every time you come in. You must make adjustments, and I just don't think Manny is going to do that. He is going to come in believing that the ODLH gameplan will work again, and I don't think that's the case.

I don't think I remember a single Cotto fight where he was not able to land a significant number of solid punches within the first 6 rounds, let alone through 12 where he usually piles them up. And he has fought some excellent fighters. Even against Zab, who in the first half of his fights is very fast and not easy to hit (ask Floyd), Cotto was able to land. Based on this, I just don't see how it's possible for people to think that Cotto is never going to be able to hit Manny? He will catch Pac, and Pac will inevitably be hurt. As I said before, this is crucial in analyzing this fight, because Pac is not capable of fighting hurt for any significant period of time against Miguel Cotto. His defense is largely bolstered by his fantasic offense. He is not good enough at running, or clinching, or jiving around to survive once hurt. As the smaller and weaker man it makes it even harder to employ those techniques effectively anyway. Once he is dazed, he is done.

 

Cotto likes to get shots off, then do the 3 step. Against Margarito when he couldn't get his feet properly set again because of constant pressure, he usually went against the ropes to cover up. Or he moved side ways almost with his back turned.

That's what he will be doing late late in the fight.

 

Yes he is. He has the fastest feet in boxing, and his defense and movement are probably his biggest improvements since the Morales days.

He is much harder to hit now than he was before, just watch his last 2 fights.

Yes, Cotto is more accurate and sharper than Oscar and Hatton, but still, Oscar and Hatton could barely lay a glove on Manny.

Dare I say, they hit Floyd more often than they hit Pacquiao.

And Outlander, I'm quite confused by this statement -

You're acting like Pacman was wild and aggressive against Oscar and Hatton. Apart from when Pacquiao realised Hatton was there for the taking, he was far less aggressive, and far more disciplined against Oscar and Hatton than he ever has been before.

He fought like he should fight bigger men - carefully. He'll do the same against Cotto, and win.

 

I agree with this. Let's see if even Cotto can take away Pacman's left. If he can, he could win pretty easily, but that is a very big if

 

What will happen? Manny will get angry.






And when Manny gets angry...




Cotto will pay...

 

I guess the thing is, so far nobody else has, not even Marquez, who is clearly the most skilled and crafty fighter Pacquiao has fought.

So there's no good reason to think Cotto would.

 

Depends. Will Cotto's gloves be skinned?

 

Pacquiao is going to land every punch he has...esp. the right hook...the left hand..yeah it gonna land but not like it did on Hatton and Diaz..everyone is in love with that left....


If Cotto can land that right hand he likes to throw against southpaw..and it bothers Pacquiao...then it's a done deal..everytime Pac comes in he will be eating that right hand....

 

First of all it's almost crazy to even bet on Pacquiao. Who has he faced in his last three fights as good as Cotto? DLH was a shell. Ricky Hatton? Need I remind you that Luis Collazo almost knocked him out and Collazo hits like a girl. Pacquiao has been fighting everlast bags, and I don't know if he can take what Cotto is going to bring.

Now, I didn't see Cotto's last fight so I can't comment. However, Joshua Clottey is a beast who hits very hard. He can easily fight at middleweight, except he's to short. But he's a strong, and tough. Don't forget the beating he was handing Margarito. If I'm Cotto I apply pressure and work the body, especially hit his arms to stop the speed. I also expect Cotto to work in a few low punches in order to diffuse the bomb.

Unless he's completely done I expect Cotto to stop Pacquiao late using a cautious yet deliberate attack breaking down the small man.

Cupey

 

I just wish the fight weren't taking place at a catch-weight. It's going to taint Pacquiao's victory, if he wins (as well it should).

 

what's the catch weight?

 

145

 

2lbs? no big deal Cotto will be at 147lbs and shed the 2lbs the night before.

Cupey

 

::

You are the teddy atlas of this board

 

Will you cry if Pac loses?

 

No. Perhaps few remember I was Cotto's biggest fan leading into the Margarito fight. I was the one saying Margarito had 0 chance, because of Cotto's power, skills, etc.

But he fights like a coward now. Whatever fire he had coming up, has absolutely wiped itself from memory. His performances during and after the Margarito fight have been embarassing. He fights scared, fights like he can't crack an egg. Pacquiao is gonna put the fear of a hangover into him, a fear he knows well.

 

Well maybe he's the new Hector Camacho. But I honestly don't think Pacquiao will have enough power to get past what Cotto is going to be dishing out. Unless he's lost his spine like you say, I don't see why he would back up against Pacquiao. He should be coming forward and breaking down the smaller man. Of course Cotto has never had a great chin, but he does recover well.

Cupey

 

There's no reason for him to run from Michael Jennings either, but thats how he fights now. Cotto doesn't sit on any of his punches anymore, its embarassing. If he actually nutted up and dished stuff out these days that would be one thing. But couple his poor showings against southpaws with his reduced sperm count, this fight is a no brainer on paper.

 

Maybe, but at the same time Cotto must know he has a great opportunity here to recover some of the luster he lost with the beating he took against Margarito. I mean if Marquez could hang with his power I'm not sure why Cotto would worry. Once Cotto has some success landing some of his heavy shots against Pacquiao I think we'll see a change. But if he fights like a bitch I hope Pacquiao puts him to sleep. I'd pay Pacquiao extra because I can't stand Cotto.

Cupey

 

I don't know - in the age of PBF, Dirrell and Dawson, it's pretty hard to say Cotto fights like a bitch.

 

I believe there are a couple things at play here...

yes...what happens when Manny gets hit by Cotto and also what happens if the fight goes late and gets rough.

Manny hasn't been in a real fight in what...a year and a half? Since the third Marquez fight?

if the fight gets tough down the stretch I like Cotto. he's got the Clottey fight under his belt, knows he can come back from adversity.

I'm not certain Pac has that at this stage of his career and life. I still have the feeling he's prone to getting frustrated...if he doesn't hurt Cotto early or the fight is relatively even or he's slightly behind after the first five or six rounds I'm not sure what happens.

he's lived a charmed exisitence as of late in and out of the ring.

Mind you, they chose Cotto for a reason...perhaps he seems vulnerable to them. i won't write Cotto off...he's more than a live dog here.

On the Cotto side...I can't help but wonder if he's overtrained. he was in camp for a LONG time.

 

Disagree on Cotto fighting like a coward vs. Clottey. He busted it out like a warrior when many would have looked for a way out with that cut, IMO.

 

If 2 pounds was no big deal it wouldn't have been such an important factor during negotiations.

The lower Cotto drops in weight, the crappier his punch resistance is. When you're already drying out to make weight, every pound counts.

 

Roach knows this...

Which is precisely why he said if Manny's to fight Cotto or Mosley it would have to be at 144 or 143 to give Manny an advantage.

 

You forget Clottey is a really good fighter who gives anyone a rough night.

Plus Cotto had to deal with the cut on his eye from a headbutt as early as the 3rd round.

I can see Pacquiao winning. He's the rightful favorite. But Cotto is very live.

 

i think the 2lbs is more to do with what weight Manny is comfortable at, rather than expecting those extra 2lbs to have much effect on Cotto.

If the fight was at 147, Manny would probably come in at about 145 anyway, so this brings them closer together, but of course on the night, Cotto will be a lot heavier.

 

LOL. If that was true Pacquiao's team would've let Cotto come at 147 and they would've weight whatever they wanted.

 

Exactly...

The point is to get Cotto to compromise himself.